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Can stablecoins make tariff-heavy trade run smoother?

Trade settlement with dollar stablecoins for small and medium enterprises navigating new duty structures and foreign exchange risk in the US and Canada is now possible thanks to dollar stablecoins.

Tariffs are intended to alter relative prices and direct trade flows in specific ways. Small and midsized enterprises in the U.S. and Canada frequently experience sudden increases in landed costs, unpredictable delivery schedules due to supplier shifts, and more complex financing situations, with higher working capital requirements, more expensive hedging strategies, and an ever-widening gap between cash outflow and return. At present, businesses are not just struggling with how and where to source products or reprice, but how they pay. Over recent years, dollar-denominated stablecoins have emerged as an intriguing–if still imperfect–tool for cross-border settlement. SME owners whose operations span volatile tariffs and currency movements often find them appealing because of faster settlement, reduced fees, programmable payment terms and easier compliance responsibilities; but this shift also brings with it compliance responsibilities as well as operational changes they must consider carefully before using them.

Tariffs cause finance challenges for SME firms. Rising or altered tariffs create immediate costs: duties increase the landed cost of imported inputs or final goods imported through customs clearance. As US manufacturers import intermediate components from overseas or Canadian wholesalers purchase finished goods from foreign sources, margins and price decisions directly impact margins and prices; but second-order effects become an operational headache as suppliers change, routes adapt, and terms get renegotiated. Payment timelines can become stretched as buyers require more time to adjust and sellers look for earlier or larger deposits to reduce uncertainty. Banks and payment processors tend to treat higher-risk corridors with greater caution, leading to slower wires, additional documentation requests and higher fees from them.

Foreign exchange adds another level. While the US-Canada corridor consists of relatively stable currencies, many North American SMEs source globally and invoice in US dollars, making FX exposure unpredictable when changes to sourcing patterns arise due to tariffs. When tariffs alter sourcing patterns or change sourcing habits significantly, FX exposure can quickly expand or shift beyond standard hedging programs’ ability to cover. That leaves SMEs paying more in forwards and swaps when liquidity for inventory and duties are required; even within US-Canada corridor borders exchange-rate moves can mitigate or amplify tariff impacts over a single purchase order period; especially when settlement delays range from days or weeks or beyond what standard hedge programs cover.

Cash conversion problems often take the form of an uncomfortable cash conversion crunch: money leaves early to cover deposits, duties and freight charges while customers delay or renegotiate payment terms; any tool which helps shorten settlement times, reduce fees or align payment flows more closely with milestone deliveries is welcome – which is where stablecoins enter the picture.

How dollar stablecoins work in cross-border settlement

 A dollar stablecoin is a digital token on a public blockchain designed to match one-for-one the US dollar, typically backed by short-term assets such as Treasury bills or cash. For cross-border settlement, tokens that move on networks that settle continuously and programmatically are what matters. A US buyer can send stablecoin to a Canadian supplier quickly and cost-effectively; once in Canada, their supplier can either hold it as synthetic dollars or convert them to Canadian dollars through exchange or payment facilitator. Fees tend to be significantly less than traditional wire costs while on-chain records make this transaction convenient for invoicing and reconciliation workflows.

In practice, this typically looks like this: both buyer and seller agree on invoicing and settlement in an efficient chain using USDC as their dollar stablecoin of choice (e.g. on Ethereum). A buyer’s Treasury team accesses funds through a regulated platform, subject to KYC and AML checks, in order to fund their corporate wallet. Payment can be automatically released upon shipment, delivery confirmation or other milestone gates using smart-contract logic that aligns with the purchase agreement. As soon as they receive payment, sellers can instantly off-ramp into bank accounts in USD or CAD or keep some in stablecoins as working capital buffer. Settlement is near instantaneous and funds final, eliminating chargeback risks inherent to card and some ACH flows.

Benefits of fast cash conversion include speeding up cash conversion times and decreasing short-term borrowing needs, cost savings from lower transfer fees and potentially tighter FX spreads if an off-ramp is competitive, and programming capabilities that allow granular payment terms such as partial release on inspection, automatic late-payment penalties or escrow-like holds without intermediaries.

Where tariffs meet stablecoins for real advantages

Tariff volatility highlights the value of immediacy and flexibility. When duty rates shift or classification rulings alter, an agreement reached last month might need to be closed quickly before new rates take effect or shipment routes must change midstream. Stablecoin settlement provides same-day adjustments; counterparties can reissue invoices, adjust deposit amounts, and settle without waiting for banking cutoffs or correspondent approvals; for SMEs dealing with multiple suppliers from multiple jurisdictions to limit tariff exposure, one securecoin-based process standardizes payments instead of maintaining numerous wire templates and PSP relationships.

Pricing and hedging considerations also play into this equation. When US buyers pay Canadian suppliers in USD, stablecoin settlement keeps value in dollars until their supplier decides to convert, making conversion easier in case of expected CAD strength or staggered conversion schedules. Conversely, when purchasing from Canadian distributors using stablecoins instead of USD wire transfers can negotiate dynamic payment schedules tied to tariff pass-through mechanisms, with on-chain logic automatically adjusting net amounts as customs entries finalize and brokers confirm duty assessments.

Remittance traceability assists both customs and audit. Each transfer has a transaction hash that can be linked with invoice numbers and HS codes in metadata or parallel records – providing an audit trail that supports cost calculations, transfer pricing documentation and internal controls.

The US and Canadian regulatory realities

Regulation is both an enabler and constraint of stablecoin adoption in the US. Under state money transmitter laws and federal securities and commodities oversight for certain activities as well as Bank Secrecy Act obligations regarding on/off ramps and exchanges, stablecoin use is subject to various governing authorities in this regard. For SME operations specifically, it’s most beneficial to utilize regulated platforms for conversion and custody as well as implement rigorous KYC, sanctions screening, and transaction monitoring of counterparties for successful transactions.

Canada follows a payments-risk-led approach; firms facilitating stablecoin exchange or custody are generally considered money services businesses under federal anti-money laundering legislation and must register with FINTRAC, implement compliance programs, report suspicious transactions and file suspicious transaction reports. Provinces add securities law considerations when it comes to specific crypto activities; for corporate users Canadian banks and PSPs have increasingly offered crypto-aware policies although onboarding may vary considerably; accounting and tax authorities expect accurate valuation, gain/loss tracking where applicable and documentation of business purposes in both countries.

There’s good news: none of this prevents businesses from legally using stablecoins for cross-border settlement. However, operational issues must be managed carefully: businesses must select counterparties and platforms that satisfy banks and auditors while keeping clean records and align their payment policies with sanctions, export controls, and customs laws.

Banking, on‑ramps, and off‑ramps

The promise of 24/7 settlement is only useful if you can move between bank accounts and stablecoins reliably. US and Canadian SMEs have several options. The safest path is to onboard with a regulated exchange or payment facilitator that supports corporate accounts, offers named wallets with segregation, and provides API‑based on‑/off‑ramps in USD and CAD. These providers conduct KYC on both sides where possible, support travel rule messaging for larger transfers, and issue enterprise statements suitable for audit.

Treasury teams should avoid using personal accounts or retail apps for business settlement, and they should establish dual‑control operational policies for wallet access. Cold‑hot wallet splits are often unnecessary for routine settlement if custody is handled by a reputable provider with insurance and SOC‑audited controls, but large balances not required for daily flows should be minimized or swept to interest‑bearing accounts once off‑ramped. Integrating provider statements into ERP systems ensures that stablecoin movements reconcile with invoices, duty payments, and cost of goods sold.

For CAD conversions, spreads can vary widely. Canadian SMEs should compare their incumbent bank’s FX desk with crypto off‑ramps that offer competitive CAD pairs. The objective is not to speculate on exchange rates but to minimize friction and ensure end‑to‑end predictability.

Compliance, customs, and audit trail considerations

Using stablecoins does not remove customs obligations. Duties and taxes are calculated on the transaction value, not the payment rail. Businesses should document the fiat equivalent at the time of payment using reliable price sources from their provider and attach transaction hashes to invoices and packing lists in their records. Where escrow‑like arrangements or milestone releases are used, ensure that terms are reflected in purchase agreements and that any on‑chain logic is mirrored in off‑chain contracts to avoid disputes.

AML and sanctions compliance are paramount. Even when dealing with long‑standing suppliers, transfers on public blockchains can be screened for red flags using provider tools. Set thresholds that trigger enhanced due diligence and require counterparties to provide their corporate wallet addresses ahead of time. For US companies, ensure OFAC screening is in place; for Canadian firms, ensure compliance with federal sanctions lists and reporting requirements. If using intermediaries, confirm they provide travel rule compliance for covered transactions.

Accounting treatment depends on jurisdiction and policy. Typically, stablecoins are treated as cash equivalents when backed one‑for‑one by high‑quality liquid assets, but some auditors still prefer conservative classification. Regardless, unrealized gains or losses are usually minimal for fully collateralized dollar stablecoins, simplifying bookkeeping compared to volatile crypto assets. Work with auditors early to align on classification, valuation, and disclosure.

Practical use cases for US–Canada SMEs

Consider a US industrial importer buying Canadian machine components. Tariffs on a third‑country input have pushed the Canadian supplier to adjust its sourcing and request a 40 percent deposit at purchase order, with balance on delivery to the US facility. Traditionally, the deposit would travel via an international wire with a two‑day lag, a $30–$50 fee, and bank cutoffs that complicate Friday shipments. Using a dollar stablecoin through a regulated corporate account, the US buyer can fund a wallet on Thursday evening and release the deposit within minutes, allowing the supplier to ship Friday morning, and set the remaining balance to release automatically upon delivery scan. The supplier off‑ramps to CAD that same day, with conversion costs comparable to or lower than bank FX.

Or take a Canadian distributor selling specialty goods into the US. Retail customers have become more price‑sensitive due to tariff pass‑through, causing payment delays and inventory buildups. The distributor negotiates with a US retailer to shorten payment terms in exchange for a small discount if settlement occurs via stablecoin on receipt, eliminating card fees and chargebacks. The distributor pairs this with invoice factoring through a fintech that accepts stablecoin receipts, further accelerating cash flow.

In both cases, the business wins not because the crypto element is trendy, but because settlement becomes faster, programmable, and cheaper, and because those features map directly onto the challenges tariffs create.

Risks and how to mitigate them

No payment rail is risk‑free. Stablecoin users face issuer risk, network risk, and operational risk. Issuer risk relates to whether the stablecoin maintains its peg and reserves; mitigation includes selecting reputable issuers that publish frequent attestations, limiting exposure by sweeping balances promptly, and diversifying across issuers if volumes justify. Network risk involves congestion or unexpected fees; the solution is to use efficient chains with predictable costs and to test transfers with small amounts before large settlements. Operational risk centers on key management and fraud; dual approval policies, allow‑listed addresses, and role‑based access are essential.

There is also counterparty risk. Not every supplier will be comfortable with stablecoins, and not every bank relationship officer will be enthusiastic. Engage stakeholders early, explain the compliance setup, and be prepared with backup rails. Finally, policy risk persists. Regulatory frameworks are evolving, and rules can change. Using providers that adapt quickly and maintain strong regulatory relationships reduces the chance of sudden disruptions.

Getting started: a practical roadmap

SMEs interested in exploring stablecoin settlement should begin with a narrow, controlled pilot. Select one willing counterparty in the US–Canada corridor and one invoice type, such as deposits or milestone payments, where time savings would be most valuable. Onboard with a regulated platform that supports corporate accounts in both jurisdictions. Establish internal controls for wallet access, KYC your counterparty as you would for any high‑risk payment, and document procedures for valuation and reconciliation. Run the pilot for a fixed period, measure settlement times, total fees, and working capital impact, and compare to the status quo. Share results with banking partners and auditors to build comfort.

If the pilot meets targets, expand to additional suppliers or customers and consider adding programmable features: automated partial releases, early‑payment discounts embedded in smart contracts, or escrow conditions keyed to logistics data. Keep duty and customs documentation tightly coupled to payment records so landed cost accounting remains clean.

Tariffs won’t disappear from North American trade policy anytime soon

Their knock‑on effects, longer cash conversion cycles, pricier hedging, and more cumbersome payment operations, fall hardest on SMEs. Dollar stablecoins are not a cure‑all, but they offer practical relief in the form of speed, cost efficiency, and programmable settlement that can be tailored to real‑world purchase terms. In the US and Canada, the legal path for using them exists, provided businesses adopt strong compliance practices, choose reputable intermediaries, and integrate payments into their existing controls and ERP.

Used thoughtfully, stablecoins can indeed grease the wheels of tariff‑distorted trade. The winning play is not to replace banks, but to complement them: leverage stablecoins for what they do best, instant, programmable settlement across borders, while maintaining robust fiat on‑ and off‑ramps, disciplined compliance, and clear documentation. For SMEs navigating the shifting terrain of duties and exchange rates, that combination can turn payment friction into a manageable variable rather than a strategic roadblock.

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Sustainability and Technology in Canadian Commercial Real Estate

Two connected trends, sustainability and technology, are causing a huge change in Canada’s commercial real estate market right now. Both businesses and governments put a high value on being environmentally responsible. At the same time, new technologies are becoming more and more important to how businesses operate. We look into how these trends will affect Canadian commercial real estate, including the changes, problems, and opportunities that will come up in the future.

The Push for Sustainability in Commercial Real Estate

Sustainability is quickly becoming an important part of the success of the commercial real estate industry. This is because Canada wants to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, and buildings are responsible for 18% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. Renovating and repairing buildings must be part of climate action.

Green Building Standards and Regulations

Over time, green building certifications like LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) have become more common. These certifications promote energy efficiency, water conservation, and building practices that are good for the environment. Cities like Vancouver and Toronto are setting an example with tight building standards and incentives that encourage building in a way that is good for the environment.

The Climate Emergency Action Plan for Vancouver sets strict limits on how much pollution commercial buildings can produce. It also encourages retrofits and the use of renewable energy by offering tax credits and refunds. Green Communities Canada says that eco-friendly retrofits could save Canadians $3.8 billion over the next 20 years if they use materials that are good for the environment.

Financial Incentives for Sustainability

Canada has a number of reasons to promote sustainability in its commercial real estate. Tax credits for energy-efficient improvements and subsidies for renewable energy installations are examples of these incentives. The Canada Infrastructure Bank’s Building Retrofits Initiative is another example of a program that funds large-scale retrofitting projects.

Technology in Transforming Commercial Real Estate

Technology is changing the commercial real estate sector in a big way. Technological advances are helping property owners and managers run their businesses more efficiently, improve the experiences of their tenants, and have less of an impact on the environment. These include smart building systems, analytics platforms, and data visualization tools.

Smart Building Technologies

Modern commercial buildings now almost always incorporate smart building technologies like Internet of Things sensors and AI-powered energy management systems. Providing real-time monitoring of energy use, lighting control systems, and HVAC units, as well as lower costs because of lower operating costs and emissions.

Smart thermostats and automated lighting systems can save energy use by up to 30%. Predictive maintenance technologies use data analysis to find equipment issues before they happen, which cuts down on downtime and replacement expenses.

PropTech and Data Analytics

PropTech (Property Technology) has revolutionized the management and marketing of commercial real estate. Data analytics platforms offer insight into tenant behaviour, market trends and building performance to make informed decisions.

By 2025, data centers and cold storage facilities are emerging as a key asset class in commercial real estate due to rising demands for e-commerce and logistics optimization. These facilities rely heavily on advanced technologies for efficiency and reliability.

Challenges and Opportunities

Although incorporating sustainability and technology offers many advantages for commercial real estate properties, it also poses unique challenges.

Upfront Costs and ROI

One of the main obstacles to adopting sustainable and technological solutions is their high upfront cost. Retrofitting older buildings to modern standards may prove costly. The return on investment may take years to materialize. However, government incentives and energy efficiency savings have helped mitigate these expenses over time.

Regulatory Compliance

Navigating the complex regulatory environment is another challenge for property owners. As sustainability standards change and evolve, property owners need to stay up to date on required regulations to avoid potential penalties. This requires consistent investment in time and resources.

Competitive Advantage

On the contrary, properties that prioritize sustainability and technology tend to command higher rents and attract premium tenants. Sustainability property investments are viewed as low-risk long-term value propositions.

Case Studies: Leading the Way in Sustainability and Technology

Here are some instances of Canadian commercial real estate projects that are leaders in sustainability and technology.

The Well, Toronto

The Well is a mixed-use development in Toronto. It is a great example of sustainable urban planning. It has green roofs, methods for collecting rainwater, and building materials that are good for the environment. Also, new building technology help make the best use of energy while making tenants more comfortable.

Vancouver’s Green Building Initiatives

Vancouver is still leading the way in green development projects like Marine Gateway. This transit-oriented community uses innovative technologies and sustainable design concepts to lower its impact on the environment while still providing good places to live and work.

The Future of Commercial Real Estate in Canada

As Canada works toward more eco-friendly goals, commercial real estate will play a significant role in meeting them. Integrating technology and sustainability will not simply be seen as a trend. But something that is required for long-term success. Eventually, making these changes part of standard business practices.

Emerging Trends

Looking ahead, several trends are expected to shape the industry:

  1. Net-Zero Buildings: Government mandates and tenant demand will drive the development of net-zero energy buildings.
  2. Decarbonization: Renewable energies, such as solar and wind power, will become more widely adopted.
  3. Flexible Workspaces: With hybrid work models, their influence will become evident in office designs and layouts.
  4. Resilient Infrastructure: Climate resilience will become a priority when considering new development projects in areas susceptible to natural disasters, such as coastal regions.

Collaboration and Innovation

For commercial real estate development to achieve these new levels of sustainability and technology goals, it would require the cooperation of developers, legislators, and technology providers. It can help the economy develop while also helping to reduce emissions and environmental damage.

Sustainability and technology are transforming the commercial real estate market in significant ways, bringing both benefits and drawbacks. As it adjusts to new regulations and expectations, it can help develop more eco-friendly buildings by investing in greener building methods and technologies. Making Canada more competitive while also making real progress toward its environmental goals.

References

Conrad, D. (2025, April 29). Commercial real estate in Canada: What to expect in 2025. Retrieved from https://storeys.com/commerical-real-estate-canada-2025/

Hoss, A. (2025, May 7). Mark Carney’s sustainability goals could reshape Canadian real estate. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/alihoss/2025/05/07/mark-carneys-sustainability-goals-could-reshape-canadian-real-estate/

PwC Canada. (n.d.). Emerging trends in real estate. Retrieved from https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/industries/real-estate/emerging-trends-in-real-estate.html#cta

Natural Resources Canada. (n.d.). Canada green buildings strategy: Transforming Canada’s buildings sector for a net-zero resilient future. Retrieved from https://natural-resources.canada.ca/energy-efficiency/building-energy-efficiency/canada-green-buildings-strategy-transforming-canada-s-buildings-sector-net-zero-resilient-future

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How North America’s Financial Future Is Being Rewritten by Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Tokenization

In the past decade, the global financial system has witnessed a powerful undercurrent of innovation: the rise of cryptocurrency. What began as a fringe experiment led by cypherpunks and libertarians has evolved into a robust economic sector with trillion-dollar implications. Nowhere is this transformation more significant than in North America, where institutional adoption, regulatory recalibration, and technological advancement are converging to reshape not just how we invest and spend, but how we think about money itself. Today, Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenized assets are no longer theoretical tools of financial revolutionaries. They are increasingly recognized as components of a new hybrid financial infrastructure that is working its way into traditional banking, investment portfolios, government policy, and everyday transactions. And while uncertainty remains, one thing is clear: the future of finance in North America is being redrawn, one block at a time.

North America’s role in global crypto leadership is in large part driven by institutional players. As of 2024, data shows that a significant majority of crypto transaction volume in the U.S. and Canada stems from large-value transfers, often over $1 million, signaling robust involvement from hedge funds, pension funds, family offices, and financial platforms. The recent approval and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. further solidified Bitcoin’s position as a legitimate asset class. This move has given institutional investors a regulated pathway to gain exposure to Bitcoin, driving up both volume and credibility. But institutional adoption is not just about speculation. It’s about using blockchain to increase efficiency, transparency, and accessibility; whether that means tokenizing real-world assets like real estate or using smart contracts for capital market operations.

Perhaps the most transformative – yet least understood, trend is the rise of stablecoins. Originally designed as tools to facilitate crypto trading by mimicking the stability of fiat currencies, stablecoins like USDC (USD Coin) and USDT (Tether) are now morphing into de facto digital dollars. With billions of dollars in circulation, these tokens allow users to transact globally, 24/7, without the delays and fees of legacy financial systems. Increasingly, stablecoins are being used for:

  • Remittances

  • Micropayments

  • Payroll in remote gig work

  • Cross-border business transactions

This proliferation poses a fundamental question: what happens when private tech companies effectively issue widely-used currency? Some argue this represents a form of unregulated “shadow banking.” Others see it as a way to increase monetary flexibility and efficiency, particularly in underserved regions. In response, regulators are working to strike a balance, bringing stablecoins under prudential oversight while preserving their innovative potential. In Canada, preliminary frameworks are emerging to define how stablecoins fit into the payment landscape. In the U.S., legislative proposals are actively debating whether stablecoin issuers should be regulated like banks.

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) marks another frontier in the crypto economy. By representing ownership of tangible assets, real estate, government bonds, art, and more – on a blockchain, tokenization promises to unlock vast new liquidity pools. This shift matters because traditional capital markets are riddled with friction:

  • High entry barriers for retail investors

  • Limited liquidity for private equity and real estate

  • Costly and time-consuming settlement processes

Tokenization offers a solution. Imagine owning a $100 token that represents a fractional share in a Manhattan office building, or buying and selling Treasury bond tokens in real time with 24/7 liquidity. North American banks, asset managers, and startups are piloting this transformation. JPMorgan, BlackRock, and even Canadian financial firms are investing in blockchain-based fund administration, tokenized real estate, and programmable cash. As this trend matures, it could usher in a new digital capital market; one that’s more accessible, dynamic, and global.

Beyond Wall Street and Bay Street, the crypto movement carries deeper socioeconomic implications. With millions of North Americans either unbanked or underbanked, digital assets offer an onramp to financial services for those who have historically been excluded. With just a smartphone and an internet connection, individuals can:

  • Store stable-value assets like USDC

  • Transact internationally without a bank account

  • Access peer-to-peer lending platforms

For immigrant communities, especially those sending remittances, crypto solutions drastically reduce fees and transfer times compared to legacy services like Western Union. These changes may seem incremental, but over time they point toward greater economic participation and wealth building for marginalized groups. Moreover, the next generation of investors, Millennials and Gen Z – are disproportionately represented in crypto adoption. Their early exposure to Bitcoin, NFTs, and DeFi has reshaped their views on risk, value, and capital growth. As their influence in the economy grows, so too will the demand for crypto-integrated financial products.

Despite all this innovation, regulatory clarity remains the key bottleneck. North American regulators are trying to walk a tightrope: support innovation while mitigating fraud, speculation, and systemic risk. Recent developments include:

  • The SEC’s shifting stance on which digital assets are securities

  • CFTC’s increasing involvement in crypto derivatives

  • Proposed legislation in the U.S. to define stablecoin governance

  • Canada’s early moves to provide a sandbox for crypto ETFs and licensed custodians

The problem isn’t just enforcement , it’s ambiguity. Without clear definitions and frameworks, builders face compliance uncertainty, and investors face asymmetric risk. But there’s also progress. A growing number of policymakers recognize that crypto is not going away. The goal now is to create smart, adaptive regulation that enables the ecosystem to flourish safely.

What lies ahead for North America’s crypto economy is not a total replacement of traditional finance, but a gradual blending of digital and analog systems.

  • Banks may offer custody for Bitcoin and stablecoins

  • Government bonds may be tokenized and traded on blockchain networks

  • Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) may coexist with private stablecoins

  • Retirement portfolios may include regulated crypto allocations

This convergence could bring with it unprecedented efficiency, transparency, and inclusivity. But it also demands new thinking in macroeconomics, monetary policy, and cybersecurity. Will Bitcoin truly serve as a hedge against inflation? Will stablecoins undermine commercial banks? Could tokenized assets cause new kinds of financial bubbles? These are not just theoretical questions – they are active challenges that economists, regulators, and industry leaders must solve in real time.

Media, News

LNG Infrastructure Expansion in Canada

As global energy markets undergo dramatic shifts due to geopolitical instability, climate transition policies, and trade realignments, Canada finds itself at a critical juncture. One of the most strategic levers the country can pull-both economically and geopolitically-is the expansion of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. While traditionally a raw resource exporter heavily reliant on U.S. trade, Canada now faces an opportunity to reposition itself as a leading global supplier of lower-emission energy. The strategic expansion of LNG facilities across the country-especially in British Columbia and potentially Atlantic Canada-could offer long-term economic growth, trade diversification, and increased international influence.

If policymakers, private sector leaders, and Indigenous communities can align around a shared vision, Canada could emerge not just as an energy exporter—but as a geopolitical player shaping the future of transitional fuels.

Since 2022, Europe has been scrambling to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. Countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland have rapidly increased their LNG imports, primarily from the United States and Qatar. But there is growing demand for stable, democratic, and geographically diverse suppliers. Canada, with its vast natural gas reserves, political stability, and environmental governance framework, is increasingly seen as a “friendly energy partner.” However, the challenge lies not in the reserves; but in the infrastructure. Current LNG projects such as LNG Canada in Kitimat, B.C., represent major multi-billion-dollar investments with significant export potential. However, Canada still lags far behind competitors in terms of liquefaction and export capacity. The lack of pipeline access to tidewater and long regulatory timelines have delayed many past proposals. But in a post-pandemic, post-Ukraine-war world, where energy security is paramount; there is new urgency.

Expansion Possibilities:

  • Phase II of LNG Canada (doubling current export capacity)
  • Cedar LNG (an Indigenous-led project)
  • Goldboro LNG in Nova Scotia (currently stalled, but could target European markets)
  • Floating LNG terminals to shorten lead times and reduce environmental impact

Economic Theories and Strategic Implications

1. Trade Diversification Theory

Canada’s overreliance on the U.S. for energy exports exposes the economy to unilateral trade policies and tariffs. LNG expansion supports a multipolar trade model, leveraging free trade agreements like CETA and CPTPP to reach new markets in Europe and Asia.

2. Reindustrialization and Energy Sovereignty

Investment in LNG infrastructure could drive reindustrialization in remote regions, particularly northern B.C. and Atlantic Canada. This aligns with theories of regional economic development, where targeted public-private investment helps stimulate job creation, infrastructure upgrades, and population retention. Moreover, expanding domestic refining and export infrastructure increases energy sovereignty, reducing Canada’s dependence on refined imports from the U.S., a longstanding inefficiency in the nation’s energy strategy.

3. Environmental Economics and Transitional Fuels

Critics argue LNG is a short-term solution inconsistent with net-zero goals. However, many economists view LNG as a transitional fuel—cleaner than coal and oil, with the potential to displace dirtier sources in global markets. If Canada uses this as a 10–15-year bridge while building up renewables and hydrogen, it can maintain climate credibility while monetizing its resources.

Economic Benefits: Job Creation, GDP Growth, and Fiscal Impact

  • Short-Term: LNG infrastructure projects inject billions into local economies through construction, engineering, and supply chain contracts.
  • Mid-Term: Export revenue boosts government fiscal capacity for health, education, and green transition investment.
  • Long-Term: Canada solidifies its role as a resilient, democratic supplier in global energy markets, with indirect benefits to foreign policy influence and global partnerships.

The Parliamentary Budget Office and independent think tanks estimate that major LNG projects could add between $6–$12 billion to the Canadian GDP annually once operational, not including multiplier effects in regional economies. Despite the potential, significant challenges remain:

  • Environmental scrutiny: LNG projects face stiff resistance from climate advocates and certain First Nations.
  • Regulatory complexity: Canada’s federal-provincial approval process remains one of the most cumbersome among OECD nations.
  • Investor uncertainty: Fluctuating global gas prices and long timelines deter some private capital.

Yet, there is growing momentum for streamlining approval processes without abandoning environmental standards-a delicate but necessary balance.

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How Millennials and Gen Z Are Changing the Face of Commercial Real Estate Investing

Millennials and Gen Z are digital natives who grew up during periods of technological advances and economic insecurity. They are now entering the investment scene with new perspectives and different priorities than those previously. Their presence doesn’t simply add new players, it fundamentally alters the dynamics of commercial real estate.

As someone who has watched the commercial real estate market for many years, I’ve witnessed its many transitions but this generational shift stands out among them all. Young investors’ preferences, values, and approaches to investment methodologies are shaping everything from asset selection to portfolio strategies. Creating challenges and opportunities for industry players.

Evolving Asset Preferences: Beyond Traditional Office and Retail

Traditional strategies in commercial real estate has long favoured prime office buildings and retail centers as investments. However, Millennials and Gen Z investors are showing different preferences due to their experiences and observations of market vulnerabilities.

Young investors have taken a strong interest in mixed-use developments. These properties combine residential, commercial, retail, and recreational spaces into communities. Their draw lies in creating environments in which people can live, work and socialize all without long commutes. Something many younger generations prioritize as part of their work-life balance.

The pandemic amplified this shift, as remote and hybrid work models became standard. Young investors are wary about investing in traditional office properties without excellent amenities, flexibility, or sustainability features. They ask questions about traditional investments such as, can the office adapt to shifting work patterns? Does it provide collaborative environments alongside private workspaces? Does it offer experiences not replicated at home.

Retail has undergone an evolution. Gen-Z consumers who grew up shopping online prefer experiential concepts over big box stores or traditional malls These generations invest in properties featuring immersive retail experiences, pop-up venues or concept stores that go beyond transaction. Food halls, boutique fitness centers or entertainment-driven venues now dominate retail investments among this demographic.

They are interested in alternative asset classes that might consider niche or specialized before. Examples include data centers, life science facilities, self-storage units and last mile logistics properties all receiving serious consideration as they recognize their role within digital economies. They see these properties not simply as buildings but as key infrastructure supporting technologies and services they rely on daily.

This signifies an important reassessment of what defines long-term value creation in commercial real estate, with younger investors considering adaptability, experience and compliance with technological and societal trends as key value drivers.

Role of Technology and Digital Platforms in Investment Decisions

Technology has transformed not just what properties Millennials and Gen Z invest in but how they invest. Growing up digitally has taught these generations that investment processes should be easy, transparent, and accessible through technology.

Real estate crowdfunding platforms and investment apps have increased the ease of access to commercial real estate investment. Before meaningful participation required substantial capital, industry contacts, and knowledge. Today, platforms like Addy, NexusCrowd, and BuyProperly allow participants to invest with much lower minimum investments.

Technological disruption is appealing to younger investors who may lack the capital required for traditional CRE investments but want exposure. Diversifying properties allows investors to spread smaller investments across more properties instead of placing all their risk into one single asset.

Technology has changed due diligence and market analysis for young investors, who rely heavily on data analysis, AI-powered market prediction tools, virtual property tours and data analytics in assessing investment opportunities. They feel comfortable making their decisions based on digital information rather than only depending on in-person inspections or broker relationships for decision making purposes.

Social media and online communities also play a pivotal role in their investment approach. LinkedIn groups, Reddit forums like r/CommercialRealEstate and Discord channels provide market knowledge, peer advice, and trend spotting services. These create feedback loops which rapidly shift investment preferences or identify emerging opportunities.

Proptech continues to provide solutions for every aspect of investment processes. From property management platforms that deliver real-time performance data and transaction verification tools, such as blockchain applications. Technology plays a central role in how younger generations approach CRE investing.

Technology integration for industry players is no longer optional, it is a must in engaging with the next generation of investors. Firms that fail to adapt will become irrelevant over time among this tech-heavy audience.

Prioritizing Impact: ESG and Social Responsibility in CRE Portfolios

One significant change this new generation of investors brings is an emphasis on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.

Environmental considerations have become a prioirty in investment criteria. Investors prioritize properties with LEED, BREEAM or WELL certifications, energy-efficient systems or reduced carbon footprints. Environmental performance isn’t just about ethical considerations. It contributes to regulatory compliance, tenant demand and long-term asset value as well.

Climate resilience has also become an important consideration among younger investors, who are aware of climate change and the risks associated with properties. They examine them carefully for vulnerabilities to rising sea levels, extreme weather events and other environmental threats. They often consider buildings designed with these factors in mind as long-term investments rather than additional expenses.

ESG investments often reflect an emphasis on social responsibility through property that benefits communities in various ways, be it affordable housing components, public spaces or support of local businesses. Properties with these features are appealing among investors seeking sustainable investments that won’t harm the community. There has also been increased attention given to adaptive reuse projects, which preserve cultural heritage while creating new value. Reflecting an investment approach focused on strengthening rather than disrupting the community.

Governance considerations such as transparency, diversity in leadership and ethical business practices play a large part in investment decisions. Younger investors conduct due diligence not just on properties themselves but on companies managing them as well, seeking partners whose values align with theirs.

ESG investing goes far beyond mere idealism. It demonstrates a understanding of changing market dynamics. Properties with strong ESG credentials often command premium rents and attract higher-quality tenants while being better protected during downturns than those without. What began as values-based investing is increasingly recognized as smart risk management.

As developers and property managers seek to meet these priorities, adapting means reconsidering design, operations and community engagement strategies. Successful projects find ways to integrate ESG considerations throughout a property’s lifetime – from site selection and construction through management to eventual repositioning.

New Approaches to Risk, Diversification, and Deal Structures

Millennials and Gen Z have grown up during times of economic volatility. Such as the dot.com crash, 2008 financial crisis and pandemic-induced disruptions. Their experiences have contributed to distinct approaches for risk evaluation and portfolio construction.

Younger investors exhibit an odd relationship to risk. On one hand, having experienced major market corrections themselves often heightens their awareness of downside risks but on the other hand their familiarity with technological disruption makes them more accepting of emerging asset classes that older investors might view as riskier investments.

At first glance, this can result in investing strategies which seem contradictory. An investor might allocate capital both to stable multifamily properties in established markets as well as experimental co-living concepts. What unifies these choices is an emphasis on adaptability and future relevance rather than historical performance alone.

Diversifying portfolios takes on new forms in today’s real estate markets. Aside from traditional approaches like diversifying across geographic markets and property types, diversification now extends across investment structures and time horizons as well. A typical portfolio might contain fractional investments through digital platforms, direct ownership stakes in smaller properties as well as participation in private equity real estate funds. Creating multiple layers of diversification for an optimal strategy.

Deal structures are constantly shifting to reflect these preferences of investors and managers alike. Shorter hold periods appeal to those seeking liquidity and flexibility. Joint ventures that combine technological fluency or ESG expertise with established players’ capital and experience often produce win-win results. Revenue sharing models which more directly link manager incentives with performance meet this desire for transparency and fairness.

Perhaps most notably, many younger investors approach commercial real estate as part of a broader alternative investment strategy rather than as a standalone asset class. They’re comparing CRE opportunities not just against other real estate investments but against cryptocurrencies, startups, and other alternative assets, forcing the industry to articulate its value proposition in new ways.

Redefining the Investor Experience: Communication, Transparency, and Access

CRE establishments face an immediate challenge from Millennials and Gen Z investors when it comes to investor experience. Accustomed to user-friendly digital interfaces and on-demand information elsewhere in their lives, they expect similar experiences when investing.

Traditional quarterly reports and annual meetings feel inadequate to a generation raised on real-time data. Instead, they expect dashboards providing current performance metrics, interactive tools for scenario analysis, and regular digital communications that go beyond basic updates with market insight and strategic thought leadership.

Transparency should never be discounted or taken lightly, it should be expected as standard practice. Fee structures, conflicts of interest and investment rationales must all be easily accessible for investors to make an informed decision about investments they wish to pursue. Any attempts by firms or advisors at hiding information often backfire by breaking trust among clients while driving investors towards more forthcoming alternatives.

Community has emerged as an unexpected priority of investment experiences. Younger investors value platforms and managers which facilitate connection among fellow investors for knowledge sharing, co-investing opportunities and relationship formation.

Educational content plays a role in drawing in and keeping investors, They value partners that help expand their knowledge. Webinars, podcasts, detailed market analyses, interactive learning tools have become indispensable components of an investor relations toolbox.

Meeting these expectations for fund managers and platforms involves investing heavily in technology, communication strategies, organizational culture and organizational practices. To be a truly omnichannel experiences that combine digital convenience with human expertise and relationship building.

As they gain more wealth and take leadership positions within the industry, Millennials and Gen Z’s influence on commercial real estate investment will only expand. Their preferences and approaches represent more than passing trends, they represent fundamental shifts that will reshape CRE investing for years to come.

 

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How Immigration Fuels Real Estate in North America in 2025/6

I’ve been thinking a lot about immigration lately. Not just the political debates that seem endless, but something more concrete: the actual impact newcomers have on our buildings, our business districts, our commercial spaces. Everyone talks about immigrants buying homes, but what about the other side of real estate? The strip malls, office buildings, warehouses, and retail centers that make up our commercial landscape?

There’s a story here that doesn’t get enough attention. After walking through Toronto’s diverse commercial districts last month, I couldn’t help but notice how many businesses had been started by people who weren’t born here. The same patterns repeat across Montreal, Vancouver, New York, Miami… pretty much any major North American city.

Let me share what I’ve observed about this relationship between immigration and commercial real estate – both the obvious connections and the surprising ones.

Immigration as an Economic Catalyst

Population growth drives real estate demand – that’s Real Estate 101. But immigration brings something extra to the equation.

Have you noticed how immigrants tend to start businesses at higher rates? The numbers back this up. In Canada, immigrants are nearly twice as likely to become entrepreneurs compared to people born here. In the US, about 25% of new businesses come from immigrants, despite them making up only around 13% of the population. That’s pretty remarkable when you think about it.

I remember talking with a property manager in Vancouver who told me that nearly 40% of his commercial tenants were first-generation immigrants. “They don’t just rent apartments,” he said. “They rent storefronts, offices, warehouse space. They create businesses that need physical locations.”

This entrepreneurial energy translates directly into demand for commercial space. Each new business needs somewhere to exist physically, whether it’s a small office, a restaurant kitchen, or a retail storefront.

Beyond just starting businesses, immigrants create ripple effects throughout local economies. They need services, they buy products, they hire people. All these activities support other businesses that also need commercial space.

This becomes particularly important in cities facing demographic challenges. Birth rates are dropping across North America. The population would actually shrink in many regions without immigration. That would be bad news for real estate values of all types.

For investors looking at commercial properties, immigration patterns might be one of the most useful indicators of future market strength. Not the only factor, of course, but an important piece of the puzzle that sometimes gets overlooked.

Retail Sector: The Immigrant Entrepreneur Boom

Walk through almost any thriving retail district in a major North American city, and you’ll likely see the immigrant influence firsthand. I find this particularly evident in the retail sector.

Take areas like Richmond in Vancouver or Flushing in Queens, New York. These commercial districts buzz with activity largely because of immigrant entrepreneurs who’ve established businesses there. Many of these areas maintain remarkably high occupancy rates even when retail struggles elsewhere.

What strikes me about these districts isn’t just their vibrancy but their resilience. During economic downturns, many immigrant-owned businesses manage to hang on when others fold. Family support networks, community loyalty, and sheer determination seem to help them weather difficult periods.

The food sector stands out as particularly influenced by immigration. Restaurant spaces that might otherwise sit empty find new life as eateries offering cuisine from around the world. Food courts in malls have been completely transformed by this diversity. Even food trucks and temporary market stalls – which sometimes graduate to permanent locations – often represent immigrant entrepreneurship.

I talked with a commercial leasing agent in Los Angeles last year who mentioned something interesting. She said immigrant business owners often make excellent tenants because they tend to pay on time and stay in locations longer. “They’re building something for their families,” she explained. “There’s a different level of commitment.”

This doesn’t mean these businesses don’t face challenges. They absolutely do. Access to capital remains difficult for many immigrant entrepreneurs. Language barriers can complicate lease negotiations. Cultural differences sometimes create misunderstandings with landlords or regulatory authorities.

Yet despite these hurdles, immigrant-owned businesses continue to fill commercial spaces across North America, creating demand that might not otherwise exist.

Office Space Demand from New Businesses

The connection between immigration and office space might be less visible than retail, but it’s just as real.

Many immigrant entrepreneurs start with small office footprints – perhaps a desk in a coworking space or a modest suite in a Class B building. As their businesses grow, they expand into larger spaces. This creates demand across different office categories.

I visited a shared office facility in Toronto where the manager estimated about 30% of their members were immigrants building new businesses. Many focused on professional services – legal practices specializing in immigration law, accounting firms handling international tax issues, marketing agencies targeting multicultural audiences.

Technology represents another significant area. Immigrant founders have played major roles in tech ecosystems from Silicon Valley to Toronto’s growing tech corridor. These companies typically need modern office environments that support collaboration and creativity.

There’s also an indirect effect worth mentioning. Major corporations increasingly make location decisions based partly on access to international talent. Cities with strong immigration flows often attract corporate offices precisely because they offer diverse talent pools. This creates demand for premium office space that might not develop otherwise.

The pandemic and remote work have complicated this picture, admittedly. Office demand patterns are changing for everyone. Yet even with hybrid models becoming common, businesses still need physical spaces. Markets with strong immigration patterns continue attracting companies because of their talent advantages.

Industrial Real Estate: The Logistics Boom

Industrial real estate has been on fire lately, and immigration plays a role in this success story through several channels.

First, immigrant-owned businesses appear frequently in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and logistics – all sectors requiring industrial space. From food processing facilities serving ethnic markets to import/export businesses leveraging international connections, these enterprises create direct demand for industrial properties.

Second, immigration helps address labor shortages in logistics and manufacturing. In many markets, immigrant workers fill crucial roles in warehousing, transportation, and production. Companies often locate facilities where they can find available workers, including areas with significant immigrant populations.

Third, immigrant communities create demand for specialized goods that flow through supply chains. This supports warehouse and distribution facilities, particularly near ports of entry or transportation hubs.

I toured a distribution center near Toronto last year where the operator pointed out how many of their clients were importing goods specifically for immigrant communities – everything from specialty foods to cultural items. “These aren’t huge corporations,” he noted. “They’re often family businesses serving niche markets, but together they lease a lot of square footage.”

The connection between immigration and industrial real estate becomes particularly evident in gateway cities and border regions. Markets like Southern California, the Greater Toronto Area, and New York/New Jersey have seen industrial property values increase dramatically, partly due to their role in facilitating international trade flows connected to immigrant communities.

Challenges and Opportunities for CRE Investors

Like any market factor, immigration presents both challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate investors.

Challenges:

The political uncertainty around immigration policies creates risk. I’ve seen projects stall when immigration patterns shift due to policy changes. Long-term investments become trickier when you can’t predict population flows with confidence.

Cultural understanding matters too. Investors who lack familiarity with immigrant communities might miss important details about property design, tenant mix, or marketing approaches. I remember a developer who built a shopping center aimed at Asian immigrants but included design elements that actually conflicted with cultural preferences. The project struggled until they made adjustments.

Financing sometimes creates complications. Immigrant entrepreneurs may have different credit profiles or business models than lenders typically expect. This can affect their ability to lease premium spaces or commit to longer terms.

There’s also concentration risk to consider. Markets heavily dependent on specific immigrant communities might face challenges if immigration patterns change or if economic conditions shift in source countries.

Opportunities:

Identifying emerging neighborhoods early provides perhaps the biggest opportunity. Investors who recognize areas beginning to attract new immigrant populations can often secure properties before values appreciate significantly.

Adaptive reuse projects work well in these markets too. Immigrant entrepreneurs frequently demonstrate creativity in repurposing existing commercial spaces. I’ve seen outdated office buildings transformed into vibrant mixed-use facilities with retail on the ground floor and business services above, all driven by immigrant-owned businesses.

Properties designed with specific immigrant communities in mind can command premium rents and experience lower vacancy rates. This might mean incorporating relevant cultural elements, business needs, or community spaces.

Immigration also creates international investment networks. Newcomers maintain connections to their countries of origin, sometimes facilitating capital flows into North American real estate. Investors who connect with these networks gain access to additional funding sources and potential partners.

Perhaps most importantly, including immigrant-owned businesses in tenant rosters can enhance property resilience. These businesses often demonstrate strong commitment to locations and communities, helping properties maintain occupancy through market cycles.

Looking Forward

I expect immigration will become even more significant for commercial real estate performance across North America in coming years. Several factors point in this direction.

Both Canada and the United States face demographic challenges that increase reliance on immigration for population growth. Canada has already announced immigration targets exceeding 400,000 new permanent residents annually. The U.S. situation remains more politically complicated, but economic pressures may eventually push policy toward addressing labor market needs through immigration.

Global mobility continues increasing, with talented individuals increasingly able to choose their destination. Cities and regions creating welcoming environments for immigrants will likely capture more of this mobile human capital.

Technology enables immigrant entrepreneurs to leverage international connections more effectively than ever before. This supports business models bridging markets and creates demand for commercial spaces facilitating global commerce.

Climate change might accelerate migration patterns in coming decades, potentially increasing immigration flows to North America from regions facing environmental challenges.

For commercial real estate investors, these trends suggest immigration-related factors deserve central consideration in long-term strategy. Markets, property types, and development approaches aligning with immigration patterns will likely outperform those ignoring these demographic and economic forces.

The next time you drive through a commercial district in any major North American city, take a closer look at the businesses occupying those spaces. How many were started by people who weren’t born here? How many serve communities with international connections? How many employ people from diverse backgrounds?

The answers might surprise you. Immigration shapes our commercial real estate markets in profound ways that extend far beyond the familiar residential housing story. Through entrepreneurship, consumer demand, labor force contributions, and international connections, newcomers influence retail, office, and industrial property markets across the continent.

The commercial property sectors most responsive to the needs and opportunities created by immigration will likely show the greatest resilience and strongest performance in coming years. For investors willing to look beyond conventional market analyses to understand these demographic dynamics, immigration offers not just interesting social observations but practical insights for commercial real estate investment.

I’ve seen this play out in markets across North America, and the pattern seems clear: where immigrants go, commercial real estate opportunities follow. Not always immediately, not always obviously, but consistently enough to merit serious attention from anyone invested in the future of commercial property.

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How Immigration Fuels Real Estate in Canada: Beyond Residential and Into Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Immigration has long been recognized as an engine of economic and societal development in Canada. Although most conversations regarding immigration focus on residential real estate markets, its ripple effects reach much further into commercial real estate (CRE). Immigrants not only buy real estate themselves but are key contributors to the increasing demand for office spaces, retail outlets, industrial facilities, and mixed-use developments.

Immigration as an Economic Catalyst

Immigration brings in human capital that contributes to economic development. Immigrants fill labour shortages, establish new businesses, and promote innovation across industries. According to recent data, immigrants represent a substantial segment of Canada entrepreneurship. Often starting small businesses, tech startups or family-run ventures that drive demand for office spaces, storefronts or commercial properties.

Statistics Highlighting Immigration’s Impact

  • Business Creation: Immigrants make up a large share of Canada’s small business owners. Many immigrant-run businesses require retail or office spaces for operations, further fuelling growth in urban and suburban CRE markets.
  • Population Growth: Canadian population growth depends heavily on immigration. The majority of the annual population growth is from new immigrants arriving to Canada. As a result, immigration helps fuel increased demand for all forms of real estate.
  • Urbanization Trends: Immigrants tend to settle in metropolitan areas, increasing the population density and economic activity in places like Toronto and Vancouver. This trend increases the demand for multifaceted CRE developments.

Retail Sector: The Immigrant Entrepreneur Boom

Retail has changed due to immigration. Immigrants bring different cultural influences and tastes that manifest themselves through the businesses they establish. Such as ethnic grocery stores, specialty shops, or cultural service providers that enrich urban neighborhoods but need diverse retail spaces to operate effectively.

Case Study: Toronto and Ethnic Retail

Toronto, with its diverse cultural scene, has witnessed retail CRE market transformation due to immigrant-owned businesses. Ethnic retail clusters along Gerrard Street and Scarborough serve as hubs for specific communities while drawing local and regional shoppers, contributing to higher occupancy rates in retail CRE properties.

Office Space Demand from New Businesses

Immigrant entrepreneurs create not only retail property demand but also increase office space needs. Technology startups, consulting firms and import/export businesses founded by immigrant founders often opt for urban office hubs or suburban coworking spaces as operations centers. Further increasing the development of flexible office models within immigrant-rich communities.

The Rise of Co-working Spaces

Many immigrants prefer co-working spaces due to their lower financial commitment and greater flexibility when starting businesses, leading to an upswing in investments for shared office properties in cities with high immigrant populations, such as Toronto and Vancouver.

Industrial Real Estate: The Logistics Boom

Immigration contributes significantly to industrial real estate demand, such as warehouses and distribution centers, with immigrants engaging in import-export businesses that require extensive logistics support. At the same time, online retail shopping for cultural items has generated even further storage needs for warehouses and distribution centers.

Mixed-Use Developments: A Cultural Hub

One of the most significant contributions of immigration to CRE has been its impact on mixed-use developments that combine residential, retail, and office spaces. Immigrants’ tend to live close to work has created demand for properties which meet both personal and professional requirements simultaneously.

Mixed-use developments often contain cultural centers, restaurants and entertainment venues that reflect the communities. Vancouver developments, for instance, feature spaces dedicated to cultural festivals and events to increase tourism while broadening the appeal of CRE projects.

Challenges and Opportunities for CRE Investors

Immigration and CRE are often at odds, creating significant difficulties for developers and investors who must negotiate through complex regulations, cultural preferences, and ever-shifting immigration policies. Yet the opportunities outweigh these hurdles, especially within urban markets.

Key Opportunities

  1. Targeting High-Immigration Areas: Cities with significant immigrant populations provide reliable markets for CRE investments.
  2. Diverse Offerings: CRE development to cultural and community needs improves occupancy rates and long-term profitability.
  3. Public-Private Partnerships: Working with local governments to support immigrant communities can result in incentives and grants to fund CRE projects.

Immigration and the Post-Pandemic CRE Landscape

COVID-19 transformed the commercial real estate (CRE) industry, leading to trends such as e-commerce and remote work. Immigration played an essential role in its recovery phase; newcomers bring demand to urban centers while supporting office and retail demand. The construction of healthcare facilities and community hubs tailored toward immigrant populations has further stimulated the CRE market.

Future Trends

  1. Tech-Driven Developments: Immigrant-founded tech startups will drive demand for office spaces.
  2. Sustainable CRE: Immigrants’ younger demographic profile aligns with sustainability trends, increasing the need for eco-friendly developments.
  3. Resilient Urban Markets: Cities like Toronto and Vancouver will continue to be hubs for immigrant-driven CRE growth.

Immigration remains at the core of Canada’s economic drive, having far-reaching effects on commercial real estate. From retail stores and offices to industrial developments and mixed-use properties. Immigrants have made and will continue to make significant contributions towards demand in both urban and suburban landscapes alike. Understanding and taking advantage of this relationship provides CRE investors and developers a path toward sustained growth and innovation. Immigration policies continue to change as the population grows. Immigration and CRE will remain a key economic force in Canada’s real estate economy.

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The Role of Industrial and Retail Real Estate in Canada’s Commercial Real Estate

The commercial real estate (CRE) market in Canada has changed since the COVID-19 outbreak began. The industrial and retail subsectors have grown despite structural issues that some industry sectors, especially the office subsector, have suffered. These subsectors contribute to the stabilization of Canada’s commercial real estate, as seen by the performance difference, which is supported by market statistics and trends from the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report—2024.

Office Subsector’s Challenges

According to the data, the market value of office-related real estate investment trusts (REITs) has drastically decreased since 2020. This reduction can be attributed to several factors:

  • Remote Work: Due to the pandemic, many companies have implemented hybrid or entirely remote work arrangements. This reduced the demand for traditional office space.
  • Higher Vacancy Rates: 20% or higher vacancy rates for office space.
  • Increased Interest Rates: Office asset financing has become more expensive for developers and investors due to rising interest rates.

Industrial Real Estate

In the Canadian commercial real estate market, industrial real estate is performing exceptionally well in comparison to the office subsector. The information suggests that the following factors have played a role in the consistent rise in industrial market values:

  1. E-Commerce: The demand for online commerce requires the construction of warehouses and delivery facilities. Order fulfillment for e-commerce requires warehouse locations.
  2. Supply Chain: Companies are cutting their supply chains shorter to reduce the risks. There is a need for industrial zones close to metropolitan centers since goods and products can be delivered more quickly.
  3. Flexibility: A number of processes, including shipping, manufacturing, and storage, can be modified for use in industrial settings. Because of its adaptability, industrial real estate is therefore desirable to investors.
  4. Supply: Because of zoning and land-use restrictions, industrial real estate is more scarce than office space. This have resulted in low vacancy rates and high rental costs.

Which have contributed to industrial real estate’s rise to stability in Canada’s commercial real estate market, drawing both local and foreign investors.

Retail Real Estate

Despite initially being at risk because of the pandemic, the retail subsector has proven surprisingly stable. The retail REIT sector needs to adjust to customer demands, as evidenced by the recent stability of market pricing.

  1. Experience-Based Retail: Providing a better customer experience that is difficult to duplicate online is the primary goal of physical shops. To draw customers, retailers offer engaging experiences, food options, and entertainment.
  2. Omnichannel Strategies: Using physical locations and fulfillment hubs for online orders, retailers integrate digital and physical sales channels. 
  3. Localized Shopping: Shopping locally has become more popular due to the pandemic. As customers want convenience, foot traffic has surged in suburban and smaller neighbourhood shopping areas.
  4. Essential Services: The need for retail locations that house pharmacy, food stores, and other necessary services has increased retail stability.

Although retail real estate still faces challenges from e-commerce competition and changing consumer preferences, its adaptability has made it possible for it to maintain a position as a key player in Canada’s commercial real estate market.

Synergy Between Industrial and Retail Submarkets

The growing integration of the retail and industrial subsectors further enhances the stability of the CRE sector. For example:

  • Last-Mile Delivery: Industrial locations near major cities are important for last-mile delivery services, which directly assist retail operations.
  • Hybrid Spaces: The rise of hybrid spaces, which combine retail displays and industrial storage.
  • Shared Investment Appeal: Both subsectors appeal to investors looking for steady revenue streams and long-term growth.

Retail and industrial real estate are the cornerstones of Canada’s commercial real estate sector.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

For investors and policymakers, the performance of Canada’s commercial real estate subsectors has implications:

  1. Investment Strategies: Investors think about moving their money to retail and industrial assets because of their strong foundations and potential for growth.
  2. Urban Planning: Policymakers need to replan metropolitan areas in order to address the issues facing the office subsector. Potential fixes include converting abandoned office buildings into mixed-use or residential complexes.
  3. Economic Stability: Economic stability from our retail and industrial real estate sector.

This analysis demonstrates the dynamic nature of Canada’s commercial real estate market and the fact that innovation and adaptation are key to success. The industrial and retail subsectors are responsible for the stability of Canada’s commercial real estate market during the epidemic. As the office subsector faces challenges, the flexibility and growth potential of industrial and retail real estate provide hope for the future of commercial real estate. By investing in the retail and industrial subsectors, Canada can develop a more balanced and sustainable real estate market.

 

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Outlook on Canada’s Commercial Real Estate Market in 2025

The commercial real estate industry in Canada finds itself in a unique position as we enter 2025, characterized by cautious optimism but necessitating strategic thinking. Following significant changes in 2024, the progressive reduction of interest rates provides a favourable climate for growth while addressing broader economic concerns.

An Environment of Stabilizing Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada’s five rate reductions in 2024, which lowered the overnight rate from 5% to 3.25%, have enabled more accessible financing options. With further modest cuts anticipated in 2025, potentially bringing the overnight rate to 2.5% by mid-year, the financial landscape appears increasingly favourable for investors. This decline is expected to boost confidence in variable-rate financing, a critical factor for development projects and commercial property acquisitions. However, the bond market’s limited movement may keep fixed-rate funding relatively stable.

Late 2024 demonstrated the Canadian economy’s resilience, with industries such as oil and gas production driving modest GDP growth. While a slight GDP contraction is predicted in early 2025, the overall trend suggests a gradual but steady economic recovery. This environment presents opportunities for commercial real estate, particularly in sectors like technology, logistics, and energy. Areas with strong ties to resource-based industries may see increased demand for office infrastructure and industrial spaces.

Adaptability: The Key to Success in 2025

The flexibility of the real estate industry will be its greatest asset in 2025. Challenges such as moderate population growth and rising mortgage renewal costs emphasize the importance of diversifying portfolios and investing in sectors less susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. E-commerce-focused logistics hubs, flexible office spaces, and mixed-use developments are likely to remain highly appealing.

Cities with robust infrastructure and consistent demand for residential and retail real estate could benefit significantly from declining mortgage rates, which may drive up demand for both housing and commercial properties. Secondary markets, offering affordability and high-growth potential, may also attract increased investor interest as alternatives to major metropolitan areas. While the gradual decline in interest rates offers advantages, external factors like potential U.S. tariffs and evolving immigration policies demand careful attention. These factors could influence workforce availability and demand for commercial spaces. Strategic vision and adaptability at the regional level will be crucial in mitigating these risks.

Key Sectors to Watch

  1. Industrial Real Estate: The continued expansion of e-commerce and the need for supply chain resilience drive strong demand for warehousing and distribution facilities.
  2. Retail Transformation: Brick-and-mortar retail spaces adapted for experiential shopping or hybrid models are expected to gain traction.
  3. Multifamily Housing: Rising mortgage rates are delaying homeownership for many Canadians, increasing rental demand and creating opportunities for developers.

In 2025, Canada’s commercial real estate market stands at a turning point. While the easing of interest rates and a stable inflationary environment provide grounds for optimism, careful navigation of economic challenges will be vital. Investors adopting a balanced approach—focusing on long-term growth sectors while remaining agile in response to market fluctuations—will find promising opportunities in this dynamic landscape.

Although it may not be a year for unbridled optimism, 2025 offers the chance for well-informed, strategic investments that could shape the future of Canada’s commercial real estate market.

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Pension Funds and Insurance Companies in Canada’s Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Market

Pension funds are among Canada’s largest institutional investors in commercial real estate (CRE), allocating around 15% of their assets to the sector, according to the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2024. These investments aim to generate steady, long-term returns to meet future pension obligations, with a focus on direct property ownership to manage valuation risks effectively.

Why Pension Funds Invest in CRE

  1. Long-Term Growth Potential: CRE assets like office buildings, malls, and industrial facilities provide stable lease income, aligning with pension funds’ long-term horizons.
  2. Diversification: CRE helps diversify portfolios, reducing reliance on volatile stock markets and low-yield bonds.
  3. Inflation Hedge: Lease agreements often include inflation-linked rent adjustments, preserving asset value during economic shifts.
  4. Active Asset Management: Pension funds actively enhance property value through renovations, sustainability upgrades, and strategic realignment.

Key Investment Trends

  • Industrial Real Estate: E-commerce growth drives demand for warehouses and distribution centers due to stable occupancy and rental potential.
  • Mixed-Use Developments: Investments in properties combining residential, retail, and commercial spaces help diversify risks within a single asset.
  • Sustainable Real Estate: ESG considerations are growing, with a focus on green buildings like those certified by LEED.
  • Global Diversification: Pension funds are expanding internationally to access stable returns in mature markets and growth opportunities in emerging economies.

Insurance Companies and CRE Exposure

Insurance companies also hold significant CRE investments, with about 12% of their assets tied to real estate ownership. Unlike banks that focus on financing, insurers prefer direct property ownership for its alignment with long-term liabilities such as annuities and life insurance policies.

Why Insurance Companies Favor CRE

  1. Asset-Liability Matching: CRE provides reliable income streams to match long-term obligations.
  2. Stable Returns: Consistent income from CRE helps meet policyholder commitments.
  3. Capital Growth: CRE asset appreciation supports insurers’ capital growth goals alongside underwriting revenue.

Challenges and Risks in CRE Investments

  • Valuation Risks: Real estate values can fluctuate due to interest rate changes, economic downturns, and market demand shifts.
  • Office Sector Exposure: The decline in office space demand poses risks, with insurance companies dedicating around 2.8% of their assets to this subsector.
  • Regulatory Changes: Zoning laws, tax policy shifts, and market regulations can affect property values.
  • Liquidity Constraints: CRE is less liquid than stocks or bonds, limiting quick portfolio adjustments.
  • Economic Volatility: Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and employment rates impact rental income and occupancy.

Risk Mitigation Strategies

  • Diversification: Spreading investments across different CRE types and regions reduces sector-specific risks.
  • Strategic Partnerships: Collaborating with developers and private equity firms enhances asset management and deal access.
  • Technological Integration: PropTech and data analytics improve decision-making and tenant management.
  • Sustainability Investments: Focusing on eco-friendly properties boosts asset value and tenant demand.

The Future of CRE Investments

Pension funds and insurance companies will continue to play critical roles in Canada’s CRE sector. Trends like e-commerce expansion, urban renewal, and sustainability will shape future opportunities, especially in industrial and mixed-use properties. While pension funds focus on long-term growth and diversification, insurers will maintain CRE investments to balance asset-liability management with growth objectives.

Despite valuation risks, these institutions’ involvement reflects a commitment to long-term wealth creation and economic stability. Their adaptability and strategic investments will be vital for the continued growth of Canada’s commercial real estate landscape.