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How Immigration Fuels Real Estate in North America in 2025/6

I’ve been thinking a lot about immigration lately. Not just the political debates that seem endless, but something more concrete: the actual impact newcomers have on our buildings, our business districts, our commercial spaces. Everyone talks about immigrants buying homes, but what about the other side of real estate? The strip malls, office buildings, warehouses, and retail centers that make up our commercial landscape?

There’s a story here that doesn’t get enough attention. After walking through Toronto’s diverse commercial districts last month, I couldn’t help but notice how many businesses had been started by people who weren’t born here. The same patterns repeat across Montreal, Vancouver, New York, Miami… pretty much any major North American city.

Let me share what I’ve observed about this relationship between immigration and commercial real estate – both the obvious connections and the surprising ones.

Immigration as an Economic Catalyst

Population growth drives real estate demand – that’s Real Estate 101. But immigration brings something extra to the equation.

Have you noticed how immigrants tend to start businesses at higher rates? The numbers back this up. In Canada, immigrants are nearly twice as likely to become entrepreneurs compared to people born here. In the US, about 25% of new businesses come from immigrants, despite them making up only around 13% of the population. That’s pretty remarkable when you think about it.

I remember talking with a property manager in Vancouver who told me that nearly 40% of his commercial tenants were first-generation immigrants. “They don’t just rent apartments,” he said. “They rent storefronts, offices, warehouse space. They create businesses that need physical locations.”

This entrepreneurial energy translates directly into demand for commercial space. Each new business needs somewhere to exist physically, whether it’s a small office, a restaurant kitchen, or a retail storefront.

Beyond just starting businesses, immigrants create ripple effects throughout local economies. They need services, they buy products, they hire people. All these activities support other businesses that also need commercial space.

This becomes particularly important in cities facing demographic challenges. Birth rates are dropping across North America. The population would actually shrink in many regions without immigration. That would be bad news for real estate values of all types.

For investors looking at commercial properties, immigration patterns might be one of the most useful indicators of future market strength. Not the only factor, of course, but an important piece of the puzzle that sometimes gets overlooked.

Retail Sector: The Immigrant Entrepreneur Boom

Walk through almost any thriving retail district in a major North American city, and you’ll likely see the immigrant influence firsthand. I find this particularly evident in the retail sector.

Take areas like Richmond in Vancouver or Flushing in Queens, New York. These commercial districts buzz with activity largely because of immigrant entrepreneurs who’ve established businesses there. Many of these areas maintain remarkably high occupancy rates even when retail struggles elsewhere.

What strikes me about these districts isn’t just their vibrancy but their resilience. During economic downturns, many immigrant-owned businesses manage to hang on when others fold. Family support networks, community loyalty, and sheer determination seem to help them weather difficult periods.

The food sector stands out as particularly influenced by immigration. Restaurant spaces that might otherwise sit empty find new life as eateries offering cuisine from around the world. Food courts in malls have been completely transformed by this diversity. Even food trucks and temporary market stalls – which sometimes graduate to permanent locations – often represent immigrant entrepreneurship.

I talked with a commercial leasing agent in Los Angeles last year who mentioned something interesting. She said immigrant business owners often make excellent tenants because they tend to pay on time and stay in locations longer. “They’re building something for their families,” she explained. “There’s a different level of commitment.”

This doesn’t mean these businesses don’t face challenges. They absolutely do. Access to capital remains difficult for many immigrant entrepreneurs. Language barriers can complicate lease negotiations. Cultural differences sometimes create misunderstandings with landlords or regulatory authorities.

Yet despite these hurdles, immigrant-owned businesses continue to fill commercial spaces across North America, creating demand that might not otherwise exist.

Office Space Demand from New Businesses

The connection between immigration and office space might be less visible than retail, but it’s just as real.

Many immigrant entrepreneurs start with small office footprints – perhaps a desk in a coworking space or a modest suite in a Class B building. As their businesses grow, they expand into larger spaces. This creates demand across different office categories.

I visited a shared office facility in Toronto where the manager estimated about 30% of their members were immigrants building new businesses. Many focused on professional services – legal practices specializing in immigration law, accounting firms handling international tax issues, marketing agencies targeting multicultural audiences.

Technology represents another significant area. Immigrant founders have played major roles in tech ecosystems from Silicon Valley to Toronto’s growing tech corridor. These companies typically need modern office environments that support collaboration and creativity.

There’s also an indirect effect worth mentioning. Major corporations increasingly make location decisions based partly on access to international talent. Cities with strong immigration flows often attract corporate offices precisely because they offer diverse talent pools. This creates demand for premium office space that might not develop otherwise.

The pandemic and remote work have complicated this picture, admittedly. Office demand patterns are changing for everyone. Yet even with hybrid models becoming common, businesses still need physical spaces. Markets with strong immigration patterns continue attracting companies because of their talent advantages.

Industrial Real Estate: The Logistics Boom

Industrial real estate has been on fire lately, and immigration plays a role in this success story through several channels.

First, immigrant-owned businesses appear frequently in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and logistics – all sectors requiring industrial space. From food processing facilities serving ethnic markets to import/export businesses leveraging international connections, these enterprises create direct demand for industrial properties.

Second, immigration helps address labor shortages in logistics and manufacturing. In many markets, immigrant workers fill crucial roles in warehousing, transportation, and production. Companies often locate facilities where they can find available workers, including areas with significant immigrant populations.

Third, immigrant communities create demand for specialized goods that flow through supply chains. This supports warehouse and distribution facilities, particularly near ports of entry or transportation hubs.

I toured a distribution center near Toronto last year where the operator pointed out how many of their clients were importing goods specifically for immigrant communities – everything from specialty foods to cultural items. “These aren’t huge corporations,” he noted. “They’re often family businesses serving niche markets, but together they lease a lot of square footage.”

The connection between immigration and industrial real estate becomes particularly evident in gateway cities and border regions. Markets like Southern California, the Greater Toronto Area, and New York/New Jersey have seen industrial property values increase dramatically, partly due to their role in facilitating international trade flows connected to immigrant communities.

Challenges and Opportunities for CRE Investors

Like any market factor, immigration presents both challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate investors.

Challenges:

The political uncertainty around immigration policies creates risk. I’ve seen projects stall when immigration patterns shift due to policy changes. Long-term investments become trickier when you can’t predict population flows with confidence.

Cultural understanding matters too. Investors who lack familiarity with immigrant communities might miss important details about property design, tenant mix, or marketing approaches. I remember a developer who built a shopping center aimed at Asian immigrants but included design elements that actually conflicted with cultural preferences. The project struggled until they made adjustments.

Financing sometimes creates complications. Immigrant entrepreneurs may have different credit profiles or business models than lenders typically expect. This can affect their ability to lease premium spaces or commit to longer terms.

There’s also concentration risk to consider. Markets heavily dependent on specific immigrant communities might face challenges if immigration patterns change or if economic conditions shift in source countries.

Opportunities:

Identifying emerging neighborhoods early provides perhaps the biggest opportunity. Investors who recognize areas beginning to attract new immigrant populations can often secure properties before values appreciate significantly.

Adaptive reuse projects work well in these markets too. Immigrant entrepreneurs frequently demonstrate creativity in repurposing existing commercial spaces. I’ve seen outdated office buildings transformed into vibrant mixed-use facilities with retail on the ground floor and business services above, all driven by immigrant-owned businesses.

Properties designed with specific immigrant communities in mind can command premium rents and experience lower vacancy rates. This might mean incorporating relevant cultural elements, business needs, or community spaces.

Immigration also creates international investment networks. Newcomers maintain connections to their countries of origin, sometimes facilitating capital flows into North American real estate. Investors who connect with these networks gain access to additional funding sources and potential partners.

Perhaps most importantly, including immigrant-owned businesses in tenant rosters can enhance property resilience. These businesses often demonstrate strong commitment to locations and communities, helping properties maintain occupancy through market cycles.

Looking Forward

I expect immigration will become even more significant for commercial real estate performance across North America in coming years. Several factors point in this direction.

Both Canada and the United States face demographic challenges that increase reliance on immigration for population growth. Canada has already announced immigration targets exceeding 400,000 new permanent residents annually. The U.S. situation remains more politically complicated, but economic pressures may eventually push policy toward addressing labor market needs through immigration.

Global mobility continues increasing, with talented individuals increasingly able to choose their destination. Cities and regions creating welcoming environments for immigrants will likely capture more of this mobile human capital.

Technology enables immigrant entrepreneurs to leverage international connections more effectively than ever before. This supports business models bridging markets and creates demand for commercial spaces facilitating global commerce.

Climate change might accelerate migration patterns in coming decades, potentially increasing immigration flows to North America from regions facing environmental challenges.

For commercial real estate investors, these trends suggest immigration-related factors deserve central consideration in long-term strategy. Markets, property types, and development approaches aligning with immigration patterns will likely outperform those ignoring these demographic and economic forces.

The next time you drive through a commercial district in any major North American city, take a closer look at the businesses occupying those spaces. How many were started by people who weren’t born here? How many serve communities with international connections? How many employ people from diverse backgrounds?

The answers might surprise you. Immigration shapes our commercial real estate markets in profound ways that extend far beyond the familiar residential housing story. Through entrepreneurship, consumer demand, labor force contributions, and international connections, newcomers influence retail, office, and industrial property markets across the continent.

The commercial property sectors most responsive to the needs and opportunities created by immigration will likely show the greatest resilience and strongest performance in coming years. For investors willing to look beyond conventional market analyses to understand these demographic dynamics, immigration offers not just interesting social observations but practical insights for commercial real estate investment.

I’ve seen this play out in markets across North America, and the pattern seems clear: where immigrants go, commercial real estate opportunities follow. Not always immediately, not always obviously, but consistently enough to merit serious attention from anyone invested in the future of commercial property.

News

How Immigration Fuels Real Estate in Canada: Beyond Residential and Into Commercial Real Estate (CRE)

Immigration has long been recognized as an engine of economic and societal development in Canada. Although most conversations regarding immigration focus on residential real estate markets, its ripple effects reach much further into commercial real estate (CRE). Immigrants not only buy real estate themselves but are key contributors to the increasing demand for office spaces, retail outlets, industrial facilities, and mixed-use developments.

Immigration as an Economic Catalyst

Immigration brings in human capital that contributes to economic development. Immigrants fill labour shortages, establish new businesses, and promote innovation across industries. According to recent data, immigrants represent a substantial segment of Canada entrepreneurship. Often starting small businesses, tech startups or family-run ventures that drive demand for office spaces, storefronts or commercial properties.

Statistics Highlighting Immigration’s Impact

  • Business Creation: Immigrants make up a large share of Canada’s small business owners. Many immigrant-run businesses require retail or office spaces for operations, further fuelling growth in urban and suburban CRE markets.
  • Population Growth: Canadian population growth depends heavily on immigration. The majority of the annual population growth is from new immigrants arriving to Canada. As a result, immigration helps fuel increased demand for all forms of real estate.
  • Urbanization Trends: Immigrants tend to settle in metropolitan areas, increasing the population density and economic activity in places like Toronto and Vancouver. This trend increases the demand for multifaceted CRE developments.

Retail Sector: The Immigrant Entrepreneur Boom

Retail has changed due to immigration. Immigrants bring different cultural influences and tastes that manifest themselves through the businesses they establish. Such as ethnic grocery stores, specialty shops, or cultural service providers that enrich urban neighborhoods but need diverse retail spaces to operate effectively.

Case Study: Toronto and Ethnic Retail

Toronto, with its diverse cultural scene, has witnessed retail CRE market transformation due to immigrant-owned businesses. Ethnic retail clusters along Gerrard Street and Scarborough serve as hubs for specific communities while drawing local and regional shoppers, contributing to higher occupancy rates in retail CRE properties.

Office Space Demand from New Businesses

Immigrant entrepreneurs create not only retail property demand but also increase office space needs. Technology startups, consulting firms and import/export businesses founded by immigrant founders often opt for urban office hubs or suburban coworking spaces as operations centers. Further increasing the development of flexible office models within immigrant-rich communities.

The Rise of Co-working Spaces

Many immigrants prefer co-working spaces due to their lower financial commitment and greater flexibility when starting businesses, leading to an upswing in investments for shared office properties in cities with high immigrant populations, such as Toronto and Vancouver.

Industrial Real Estate: The Logistics Boom

Immigration contributes significantly to industrial real estate demand, such as warehouses and distribution centers, with immigrants engaging in import-export businesses that require extensive logistics support. At the same time, online retail shopping for cultural items has generated even further storage needs for warehouses and distribution centers.

Mixed-Use Developments: A Cultural Hub

One of the most significant contributions of immigration to CRE has been its impact on mixed-use developments that combine residential, retail, and office spaces. Immigrants’ tend to live close to work has created demand for properties which meet both personal and professional requirements simultaneously.

Mixed-use developments often contain cultural centers, restaurants and entertainment venues that reflect the communities. Vancouver developments, for instance, feature spaces dedicated to cultural festivals and events to increase tourism while broadening the appeal of CRE projects.

Challenges and Opportunities for CRE Investors

Immigration and CRE are often at odds, creating significant difficulties for developers and investors who must negotiate through complex regulations, cultural preferences, and ever-shifting immigration policies. Yet the opportunities outweigh these hurdles, especially within urban markets.

Key Opportunities

  1. Targeting High-Immigration Areas: Cities with significant immigrant populations provide reliable markets for CRE investments.
  2. Diverse Offerings: CRE development to cultural and community needs improves occupancy rates and long-term profitability.
  3. Public-Private Partnerships: Working with local governments to support immigrant communities can result in incentives and grants to fund CRE projects.

Immigration and the Post-Pandemic CRE Landscape

COVID-19 transformed the commercial real estate (CRE) industry, leading to trends such as e-commerce and remote work. Immigration played an essential role in its recovery phase; newcomers bring demand to urban centers while supporting office and retail demand. The construction of healthcare facilities and community hubs tailored toward immigrant populations has further stimulated the CRE market.

Future Trends

  1. Tech-Driven Developments: Immigrant-founded tech startups will drive demand for office spaces.
  2. Sustainable CRE: Immigrants’ younger demographic profile aligns with sustainability trends, increasing the need for eco-friendly developments.
  3. Resilient Urban Markets: Cities like Toronto and Vancouver will continue to be hubs for immigrant-driven CRE growth.

Immigration remains at the core of Canada’s economic drive, having far-reaching effects on commercial real estate. From retail stores and offices to industrial developments and mixed-use properties. Immigrants have made and will continue to make significant contributions towards demand in both urban and suburban landscapes alike. Understanding and taking advantage of this relationship provides CRE investors and developers a path toward sustained growth and innovation. Immigration policies continue to change as the population grows. Immigration and CRE will remain a key economic force in Canada’s real estate economy.

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The Role of Industrial and Retail Real Estate in Canada’s Commercial Real Estate

The commercial real estate (CRE) market in Canada has changed since the COVID-19 outbreak began. The industrial and retail subsectors have grown despite structural issues that some industry sectors, especially the office subsector, have suffered. These subsectors contribute to the stabilization of Canada’s commercial real estate, as seen by the performance difference, which is supported by market statistics and trends from the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report—2024.

Office Subsector’s Challenges

According to the data, the market value of office-related real estate investment trusts (REITs) has drastically decreased since 2020. This reduction can be attributed to several factors:

  • Remote Work: Due to the pandemic, many companies have implemented hybrid or entirely remote work arrangements. This reduced the demand for traditional office space.
  • Higher Vacancy Rates: 20% or higher vacancy rates for office space.
  • Increased Interest Rates: Office asset financing has become more expensive for developers and investors due to rising interest rates.

Industrial Real Estate

In the Canadian commercial real estate market, industrial real estate is performing exceptionally well in comparison to the office subsector. The information suggests that the following factors have played a role in the consistent rise in industrial market values:

  1. E-Commerce: The demand for online commerce requires the construction of warehouses and delivery facilities. Order fulfillment for e-commerce requires warehouse locations.
  2. Supply Chain: Companies are cutting their supply chains shorter to reduce the risks. There is a need for industrial zones close to metropolitan centers since goods and products can be delivered more quickly.
  3. Flexibility: A number of processes, including shipping, manufacturing, and storage, can be modified for use in industrial settings. Because of its adaptability, industrial real estate is therefore desirable to investors.
  4. Supply: Because of zoning and land-use restrictions, industrial real estate is more scarce than office space. This have resulted in low vacancy rates and high rental costs.

Which have contributed to industrial real estate’s rise to stability in Canada’s commercial real estate market, drawing both local and foreign investors.

Retail Real Estate

Despite initially being at risk because of the pandemic, the retail subsector has proven surprisingly stable. The retail REIT sector needs to adjust to customer demands, as evidenced by the recent stability of market pricing.

  1. Experience-Based Retail: Providing a better customer experience that is difficult to duplicate online is the primary goal of physical shops. To draw customers, retailers offer engaging experiences, food options, and entertainment.
  2. Omnichannel Strategies: Using physical locations and fulfillment hubs for online orders, retailers integrate digital and physical sales channels. 
  3. Localized Shopping: Shopping locally has become more popular due to the pandemic. As customers want convenience, foot traffic has surged in suburban and smaller neighbourhood shopping areas.
  4. Essential Services: The need for retail locations that house pharmacy, food stores, and other necessary services has increased retail stability.

Although retail real estate still faces challenges from e-commerce competition and changing consumer preferences, its adaptability has made it possible for it to maintain a position as a key player in Canada’s commercial real estate market.

Synergy Between Industrial and Retail Submarkets

The growing integration of the retail and industrial subsectors further enhances the stability of the CRE sector. For example:

  • Last-Mile Delivery: Industrial locations near major cities are important for last-mile delivery services, which directly assist retail operations.
  • Hybrid Spaces: The rise of hybrid spaces, which combine retail displays and industrial storage.
  • Shared Investment Appeal: Both subsectors appeal to investors looking for steady revenue streams and long-term growth.

Retail and industrial real estate are the cornerstones of Canada’s commercial real estate sector.

Implications for Investors and Policymakers

For investors and policymakers, the performance of Canada’s commercial real estate subsectors has implications:

  1. Investment Strategies: Investors think about moving their money to retail and industrial assets because of their strong foundations and potential for growth.
  2. Urban Planning: Policymakers need to replan metropolitan areas in order to address the issues facing the office subsector. Potential fixes include converting abandoned office buildings into mixed-use or residential complexes.
  3. Economic Stability: Economic stability from our retail and industrial real estate sector.

This analysis demonstrates the dynamic nature of Canada’s commercial real estate market and the fact that innovation and adaptation are key to success. The industrial and retail subsectors are responsible for the stability of Canada’s commercial real estate market during the epidemic. As the office subsector faces challenges, the flexibility and growth potential of industrial and retail real estate provide hope for the future of commercial real estate. By investing in the retail and industrial subsectors, Canada can develop a more balanced and sustainable real estate market.

 

Media

Strategic Adaptation in Canada’s Commercial Real Estate and Multi-Tenant Industry

Richard Crenian highlights how Canada’s commercial real estate (CRE) and multi-tenant sectors are evolving in response to economic shifts, regulatory changes, and cross-border trade policies. As interest rates stabilize and new market conditions emerge, investors must adopt a strategic, flexible approach to maximize opportunities while mitigating risks.

Navigating Interest Rate Adjustments and Economic Shifts

The Bank of Canada’s successive rate cuts in 2024 have eased financing conditions, bringing the overnight rate from 5% to 3.25%. With additional modest reductions expected in 2025, potentially reaching 2.5% by mid-year, borrowing conditions continue to improve. This environment bodes well for commercial property acquisitions, multifamily developments, and value-driven investments. However, with fixed-rate lending costs remaining stable due to bond market trends, investors must weigh variable-rate benefits against long-term stability.

Despite economic uncertainty, sectors like logistics, energy, and technology continue to support CRE demand. Secondary markets, where affordability and population growth intersect, remain attractive for developers and institutional investors looking for alternative investment hubs outside of major metropolitan centers.

Impact of Canada-U.S. Tariffs on Commercial Real Estate

The recent tariff announcements between Canada and the U.S. add a layer of complexity to the commercial real estate landscape. Trade tensions could influence material costs, supply chain logistics, and tenant demand, particularly for industrial and retail spaces tied to cross-border commerce. While the specifics of these tariffs will determine their full impact, developers and investors should monitor construction material pricing and assess potential delays in sourcing steel, aluminum, and other critical building supplies.

The industrial sector, which has thrived due to e-commerce expansion, could experience increased costs if tariffs raise expenses for distribution centers and logistics hubs. Additionally, any disruption to trade routes might shift demand patterns for industrial properties near major transportation corridors, creating new investment risks and opportunities.

Multifamily Housing: Resilient Amid Changing Conditions

Multifamily real estate remains a core growth area, driven by shifting homeownership trends and continued urbanization. The federal government’s commitment to increasing housing supply—including GST exemptions for new rental developments and CMHC financing incentives—supports the expansion of purpose-built rentals, student housing, and senior living facilities. That said, tax reforms, including higher capital gains inclusion rates introduced in the 2024 federal budget, have prompted investors to rethink exit strategies and consider tax-efficient structures such as REITs and joint ventures. While the demand for rental units is expected to remain strong, developers must balance rising construction costs and policy shifts when planning future projects.

Adapting Office Spaces and Retail Developments

The office market continues its transformation as businesses adapt to hybrid work models. Traditional office demand remains weaker, particularly for smaller units under 2,500 square feet, but opportunities exist in repositioning vacant office spaces. Office-to-residential conversions and mixed-use redevelopments are gaining traction, especially in urban areas with housing shortages.

Retail real estate is also evolving, with a growing focus on experience-driven spaces. Shopping centers and mixed-use developments incorporating dining, entertainment, and community amenities are expected to perform better than traditional retail outlets. Meanwhile, last-mile distribution hubs remain a high-demand asset class as retailers optimize logistics networks to meet e-commerce-driven consumer expectations.

Sustainability and Smart Real Estate Investments

Sustainability and technology-driven efficiency remain central to the long-term viability of commercial properties. Green-certified buildings, energy-efficient retrofits, and smart building technologies are increasingly valuable, offering operational cost savings and aligning with government policies promoting environmental responsibility. Investors prioritizing sustainability will likely benefit from stronger tenant demand and potential tax incentives supporting eco-friendly developments.

As we move through 2025, Canada’s commercial real estate market presents both challenges and opportunities. While lower interest rates, strong rental demand, and infrastructure investments support long-term growth, factors such as shifting tax policies, global economic trends, and Canada-U.S. trade relations require careful navigation.

News

Outlook on Canada’s Commercial Real Estate Market in 2025

The commercial real estate industry in Canada finds itself in a unique position as we enter 2025, characterized by cautious optimism but necessitating strategic thinking. Following significant changes in 2024, the progressive reduction of interest rates provides a favourable climate for growth while addressing broader economic concerns.

An Environment of Stabilizing Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada’s five rate reductions in 2024, which lowered the overnight rate from 5% to 3.25%, have enabled more accessible financing options. With further modest cuts anticipated in 2025, potentially bringing the overnight rate to 2.5% by mid-year, the financial landscape appears increasingly favourable for investors. This decline is expected to boost confidence in variable-rate financing, a critical factor for development projects and commercial property acquisitions. However, the bond market’s limited movement may keep fixed-rate funding relatively stable.

Late 2024 demonstrated the Canadian economy’s resilience, with industries such as oil and gas production driving modest GDP growth. While a slight GDP contraction is predicted in early 2025, the overall trend suggests a gradual but steady economic recovery. This environment presents opportunities for commercial real estate, particularly in sectors like technology, logistics, and energy. Areas with strong ties to resource-based industries may see increased demand for office infrastructure and industrial spaces.

Adaptability: The Key to Success in 2025

The flexibility of the real estate industry will be its greatest asset in 2025. Challenges such as moderate population growth and rising mortgage renewal costs emphasize the importance of diversifying portfolios and investing in sectors less susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. E-commerce-focused logistics hubs, flexible office spaces, and mixed-use developments are likely to remain highly appealing.

Cities with robust infrastructure and consistent demand for residential and retail real estate could benefit significantly from declining mortgage rates, which may drive up demand for both housing and commercial properties. Secondary markets, offering affordability and high-growth potential, may also attract increased investor interest as alternatives to major metropolitan areas. While the gradual decline in interest rates offers advantages, external factors like potential U.S. tariffs and evolving immigration policies demand careful attention. These factors could influence workforce availability and demand for commercial spaces. Strategic vision and adaptability at the regional level will be crucial in mitigating these risks.

Key Sectors to Watch

  1. Industrial Real Estate: The continued expansion of e-commerce and the need for supply chain resilience drive strong demand for warehousing and distribution facilities.
  2. Retail Transformation: Brick-and-mortar retail spaces adapted for experiential shopping or hybrid models are expected to gain traction.
  3. Multifamily Housing: Rising mortgage rates are delaying homeownership for many Canadians, increasing rental demand and creating opportunities for developers.

In 2025, Canada’s commercial real estate market stands at a turning point. While the easing of interest rates and a stable inflationary environment provide grounds for optimism, careful navigation of economic challenges will be vital. Investors adopting a balanced approach—focusing on long-term growth sectors while remaining agile in response to market fluctuations—will find promising opportunities in this dynamic landscape.

Although it may not be a year for unbridled optimism, 2025 offers the chance for well-informed, strategic investments that could shape the future of Canada’s commercial real estate market.

Media, News

Pension Funds and Insurance Companies in Canada’s Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Market

Pension funds are among Canada’s largest institutional investors in commercial real estate (CRE), allocating around 15% of their assets to the sector, according to the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2024. These investments aim to generate steady, long-term returns to meet future pension obligations, with a focus on direct property ownership to manage valuation risks effectively.

Why Pension Funds Invest in CRE

  1. Long-Term Growth Potential: CRE assets like office buildings, malls, and industrial facilities provide stable lease income, aligning with pension funds’ long-term horizons.
  2. Diversification: CRE helps diversify portfolios, reducing reliance on volatile stock markets and low-yield bonds.
  3. Inflation Hedge: Lease agreements often include inflation-linked rent adjustments, preserving asset value during economic shifts.
  4. Active Asset Management: Pension funds actively enhance property value through renovations, sustainability upgrades, and strategic realignment.

Key Investment Trends

  • Industrial Real Estate: E-commerce growth drives demand for warehouses and distribution centers due to stable occupancy and rental potential.
  • Mixed-Use Developments: Investments in properties combining residential, retail, and commercial spaces help diversify risks within a single asset.
  • Sustainable Real Estate: ESG considerations are growing, with a focus on green buildings like those certified by LEED.
  • Global Diversification: Pension funds are expanding internationally to access stable returns in mature markets and growth opportunities in emerging economies.

Insurance Companies and CRE Exposure

Insurance companies also hold significant CRE investments, with about 12% of their assets tied to real estate ownership. Unlike banks that focus on financing, insurers prefer direct property ownership for its alignment with long-term liabilities such as annuities and life insurance policies.

Why Insurance Companies Favor CRE

  1. Asset-Liability Matching: CRE provides reliable income streams to match long-term obligations.
  2. Stable Returns: Consistent income from CRE helps meet policyholder commitments.
  3. Capital Growth: CRE asset appreciation supports insurers’ capital growth goals alongside underwriting revenue.

Challenges and Risks in CRE Investments

  • Valuation Risks: Real estate values can fluctuate due to interest rate changes, economic downturns, and market demand shifts.
  • Office Sector Exposure: The decline in office space demand poses risks, with insurance companies dedicating around 2.8% of their assets to this subsector.
  • Regulatory Changes: Zoning laws, tax policy shifts, and market regulations can affect property values.
  • Liquidity Constraints: CRE is less liquid than stocks or bonds, limiting quick portfolio adjustments.
  • Economic Volatility: Macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and employment rates impact rental income and occupancy.

Risk Mitigation Strategies

  • Diversification: Spreading investments across different CRE types and regions reduces sector-specific risks.
  • Strategic Partnerships: Collaborating with developers and private equity firms enhances asset management and deal access.
  • Technological Integration: PropTech and data analytics improve decision-making and tenant management.
  • Sustainability Investments: Focusing on eco-friendly properties boosts asset value and tenant demand.

The Future of CRE Investments

Pension funds and insurance companies will continue to play critical roles in Canada’s CRE sector. Trends like e-commerce expansion, urban renewal, and sustainability will shape future opportunities, especially in industrial and mixed-use properties. While pension funds focus on long-term growth and diversification, insurers will maintain CRE investments to balance asset-liability management with growth objectives.

Despite valuation risks, these institutions’ involvement reflects a commitment to long-term wealth creation and economic stability. Their adaptability and strategic investments will be vital for the continued growth of Canada’s commercial real estate landscape.

News

The Strategic Role of Pension Funds in CRE Investments

Pension Funds in CRE Investments

One of the biggest institutional investors in Canada’s commercial real estate industry is pension funds. These funds are motivated to get involved by the requirement to produce steady, long-term returns to cover future pension obligations. According to statistics from the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2024, about 15% of pension funds’ assets are allocated to the CRE industry. This includes direct property ownership stakes, demonstrating a high emphasis on valuation risks as opposed to conventional loans.

Why Pension Funds Invest in CRE
  1. Long-Term Growth Potential: CRE assets, such as office buildings, shopping malls, and industrial facilities, provide steady lease income flows. These consistent revenue streams support pension plans with extended investment horizons, which aim to provide decades of retirement income.
  2. Diversification: CRE investments facilitate portfolio diversification, lessening dependency on erratic stock markets and low-yield government securities.
  1. Inflation Hedge:
    A common inflation hedge is commercial real estate. For pension funds handling long-term commitments, lease agreements with built-in rent escalations or inflation-linked rent adjustments assist in preserving actual value during periods of price increases.
  2. Active Asset Management Opportunities:
    Pension funds frequently participate in active asset management by increasing the value of real estate through restorations, sustainability improvements, or strategic realignment. These initiatives support urban development and increase returns.

Key CRE Investment Trends Among Pension Funds

In recent years, Canadian pension funds have demonstrated a preference for certain CRE subsectors:

  1. Industrial Real Estate:
    Due to the growth of e-commerce, warehouses and distribution facilities are now of great interest. These assets appeal to long-term investors because of their steady occupancy rates and promising rental growth potential.
  2. Mixed-Use Developments:
    A growing number of pension funds are investing in mixed-use buildings that include commercial, retail, and residential areas. These developments address shifting urban dynamics and help diversify risks within a single asset.
  3. Sustainable Real Estate:
    Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors are increasingly being considered when making investment choices. Pension funds prioritize green buildings with certifications like LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design), which support sustainability objectives and attract tenants.
  4. Global Diversification:
    Although Canadian pension funds own a sizable amount of domestic assets, they are increasingly entering international real estate markets to take advantage of stable returns in established markets or stronger growth prospects in growing ones.

Valuation Risk and CRE Exposure

In Canada, major insurance providers have also significantly impacted the CRE industry. Insurance firms concentrate on ownership shares in real estate assets, which comprise around 12% of their overall assets, in contrast to banks that predominantly participate in CRE financing. This direct investment strategy risks valuation issues, but it also offers good opportunities for portfolio expansion.

Why Insurance Companies Favor CRE
  1. Asset-Liability Matching:
    Insurance firms oversee long-term commitments, including annuities and life insurance contracts. Because of their steady income sources, CRE investments are perfect for matching these liabilities.
  2. Stable Returns:
    For insurance firms looking to fulfill policyholder obligations regularly, CRE investments offer reliable profits.
  3. Capital Growth Potential:
    As CRE assets increase in value over time, they help insurance companies achieve their capital growth goals by augmenting their revenue from underwriting operations.

Challenges and Risks in CRE Investments

While CRE investments offer significant benefits, pension funds and insurance companies face several challenges and risks:

  1. Valuation Risks:
    Due to their direct ownership stakes, these institutions are subject to changes in real estate values. External variables, including rising interest rates, changes in demand, and economic downturns, can adversely affect valuations.
  2. Office Subsector Exposure:
    Portfolios with sizable office property assets are at risk from the persistent difficulties of the office subsector, which are characterized by rising vacancy rates and diminishing demand. For example, according to the Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report, insurance companies devote roughly 2.8% of their assets to office CRE, which may impact returns.
  3. Regulatory and Market Dynamics:
    Zoning laws, tax modifications, and market rules may create uncertainty, especially in mixed-use and industrial real estate.
  4. Liquidity Constraints:
    Because CRE assets are less liquid than stocks or bonds, swiftly modifying portfolios responding to market shifts can be difficult.
  5. Economic Volatility:
    Macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer spending, impact CRE markets. Economic downturns might result in lower rental income and occupancy rates.

Mitigating Risks in CRE Investments

In order to reduce risks and increase returns in the CRE sector, pension funds and insurance companies have created a number of strategies:

  1. Diversification: By distributing investments among several CRE subsectors (residential, retail, industrial, etc.) and geographical areas, one can lessen their exposure to hazards unique to a given industry.
  2. Strategic Partnerships: Partnerships with seasoned developers, private equity firms, and property managers enable better asset management and access to off-market purchases.
  3. Technological Integration: PropTech tools and smart data analytics enable better decisions, tenant management, and the identification of new opportunities.
  4. Sustainability Investments: Highlighting energy-efficient and green buildings complies with international sustainability standards, draws in renters, and raises asset values.

The Future of CRE Investments for Pension Funds and Insurance Companies

Insurance firms and pension funds are anticipated to remain important participants in Canada’s commercial real estate sector as it develops. The ongoing expansion of e-commerce, urban regeneration, and sustainability initiatives, particularly in industrial and mixed-use real estate, will create new opportunities. Institutions must continue to be alert to market concerns, such as growing interest rates and the difficulties facing the office subsector.

Pension funds will continue to need to maintain a diversified portfolio and concentrate on long-term growth to fulfill their responsibilities. Conversely, insurance firms will probably continue using commercial real estate investments to match assets and liabilities while balancing growth prospects and valuation risks.

Pension funds and insurance firms are essential in Canada’s commercial real estate market because they supply the finances and know-how required for the industry’s expansion. Despite managing valuation concerns, their emphasis on ownership stakes shows a dedication to long-term wealth generation. These organizations will continue to propel the development of Canada’s CRE industry while guaranteeing financial security for its stakeholders by adjusting to shifting market conditions and utilizing creative tactics.

The stability and long-term growth of Canada’s economy depend heavily on the flexibility and resilience of insurance firms and pension funds in a constantly shifting real estate market.

Media

The Bank of Canada’s 2024 Rate Cuts and Impact on Commercial Real Estate

A significant turning point for Canada’s commercial real estate (CRE) industry was reached on December 11, 2024, when the Bank of Canada decided to lower its overnight lending rate target to 3.25%. This policy change, the fifth rate cut since April 2024, is expected to impact leasing, development, and investment activities nationwide in 2025 and determine the direction of the CRE market. 

The Context Behind the Rate Reduction

A key factor in Canada’s post-pandemic economic recovery is monetary policy. Consumer spending, borrowing expenses, and total economic growth are all directly impacted by interest rates. Financial markets generally expected a rate cut in the run-up to the December announcement, highlighting how crucial it is for investors and companies.

In less than a year, the overnight lending rate has decreased by 1.75% as a result of the 50 basis point decrease and earlier reductions in 2024. The cost of capital has significantly decreased for the CRE industry, which mostly depends on financing for developments and acquisitions.

Impact on Borrowing Costs and CRE Investment

Lower Borrowing Costs for Developers

The decrease in borrowing costs is among the most direct effects of rate decreases. Lower interest rates can help developers who are planning new projects or who are looking to refinance existing debt, increasing the viability and profitability of their initiatives. We can anticipate more groundbreaking for new projects in 2025. As developers take advantage of lower borrowing costs, industries like industrial real estate and mixed-use complexes will probably witness a spike in activity. Due to lower borrowing thresholds, smaller market actors may be able to enter the CRE sector, which would encourage competition and innovation.

Increased Appeal for CRE Investments

In contrast to fixed-income assets like bonds, which generally lose appeal in low-rate settings, investors might expect higher yields on CRE when interest rates are lower. Increased investment in industries like office, retail, and industrial real estate is anticipated as a result of this dynamic.

Sector-Specific Impacts

Industrial Real Estate

In 2025, the industrial real estate market is expected to grow thanks to the demand for logistics and e-commerce. The rate reductions will make it less expensive to build warehouses, distribution facilities, and last-mile logistics hubs, especially in places with high demand, like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal.

Office Space

The shift in demand due to remote employment has presented issues for the office industry. Nonetheless, the reduced financing rates can persuade companies to rent or purchase office space in cities, especially for hybrid work arrangements. In this setting, coworking facilities and flexible workplace ideas might win out.

Retail CRE

In 2025, the retail industry will face a variety of challenges. The recovery of the retail industry depends on customer confidence and purchasing trends, even though lower rates can encourage renovating retail facilities. Specialty retail markets and immigrant entrepreneurs may significantly influence the demand for retail space.

Impact on CRE Financing and Lending Practices

Mortgage rates and other financing choices are impacted in a cascading manner by the decreased overnight lending rate. Because institutional and private lenders are anticipated to provide more favourable terms for CRE loans in 2025, allowing developers and investors to grow their portfolios, we foresee improved access to money. Opportunities for refinance: Homeowners who already owe money may be able to refinance at reduced rates, freeing up funds for other projects or reinvestment. Investors can use reduced borrowing costs to strengthen their positions and pursue riskier or larger ventures.

Inflation and Employment

Lower interest rates affect inflation and employment even though they boost economic activity. The action taken by the Bank of Canada indicates a careful balancing act between controlling inflationary pressures and promoting growth. Because rising labour and construction costs may cancel out some benefits of lower borrowing costs, CRE stakeholders must look for inflation threats. The demand for office space, retail establishments, and residential developments in mixed-use projects is expected to be supported by a robust job market, especially in urban areas.

Regional Insights for 2025

Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

The GTA is anticipated to continue to be a hub for CRE activity in 2025. Due to the strong demand for e-commerce, industrial constructions will predominate, but as hybrid work models solidify, downtown office space may experience a modest resurgence.

Vancouver

Vancouver’s position as a gateway for global trade will help the city’s real estate market. The main growth zones will be industrial areas and mixed-use projects that serve the country’s expanding immigrant population.

Montreal

Investors find Montreal to be a desirable alternative due to its reasonably priced commercial real estate compared to other major Canadian cities. The need for office space and flexible work arrangements will be fueled by the city’s startup community and IT sector.

Opportunities and Challenges in 2025

Opportunities

Sustainable Developments: Developers may prioritize eco-friendly projects if borrowing costs are reduced, which would meet the growing demand for green buildings.

Mixed-Use Projects: Especially in urban areas, the movement to combine office, retail, and residential space will pick up steam.

Secondary Markets: Due to lower entry fees and rising demand, secondary markets may be a good option for investors looking for better yields.

Challenges

Economic Uncertainty: Market volatility may result from the possibility of policy changes or economic shocks.

Tenant Preferences: To stay competitive, developers may need to quickly adjust to changing tenant demands, especially in the office and retail sectors.

 

Media, News

Managing Commercial and Multifamily Real Estate Prospects in Canada- Insights from Richard Crenian

Richard Crenian highlights how Canada’s commercial and multifamily real estate (CRE) sectors are evolving under the influence of market dynamics, government policies, and macroeconomic trends. With the multifamily development boom and shifting CRE opportunities, investors need strategic approaches to navigate these changes.

Multifamily Real Estate Growth

Multifamily construction is surging, driven by population growth and changing housing preferences. Purpose-built rental units, student housing, and senior living developments are thriving, supported by government incentives like GST exemptions on new residential builds and CMHC subsidies. Cities such as Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal are key growth hubs. However, tax changes from the 2024 Budget, including higher capital gains inclusion rates, are prompting investors to reassess their portfolios, with some exploring tax-efficient vehicles like REITs and joint ventures.

Industrial Real Estate Resilience

Canada’s industrial sector remains robust, fueled by e-commerce growth and the need for efficient logistics networks. High demand for warehouses, flex spaces, and distribution centers, particularly in regions like Hamilton and Niagara, presents opportunities for investors who can secure properties near major transit hubs.

Office Space Transformation

The shift to remote and hybrid work models has reduced demand for traditional office spaces, especially smaller units under 2,500 square feet. However, this challenge opens doors for conversions—older office buildings are being repurposed into coworking spaces or multifamily apartments, particularly in urban areas with housing shortages. Suburban office spaces are also gaining traction due to shorter commutes and lower leasing costs.

Opportunities in Class B and C Properties

Vacant Class B and C office buildings offer potential for conversion into mixed-use developments, combining residential, retail, and office spaces. This approach aligns with urban renewal trends, supporting sustainability and economic growth while revitalizing underutilized areas.

Sustainability and Smart Buildings

Sustainability is central to real estate investments. Initiatives like the Canada Green Building Strategy promote energy-efficient designs. Green buildings with LEED certifications attract eco-conscious tenants, while smart technologies—such as IoT-based energy management and predictive maintenance—enhance property value and operational efficiency.

Retail and Mixed-Use Developments

The retail landscape is shifting towards experience-driven spaces that combine shopping, dining, and entertainment. Mixed-use developments are particularly attractive, fostering vibrant communities with reduced reliance on long commutes. Investors are also capitalizing on e-commerce-driven demand for last-mile delivery hubs, integrating technologies like automated warehouses and drone logistics.

Navigating Regulatory Challenges

Despite growth opportunities, CRE investments face challenges from high interest rates and regulatory shifts. Strategic financing through private equity, joint ventures, and REITs can mitigate risks. Government policies focused on urban density, affordable housing, and sustainability will continue to shape the industry landscape.

The Future of CRE in Canada

Canada’s CRE sector is at a pivotal point, with opportunities spanning green buildings, logistics centers, and office-to-residential conversions. Innovation, adaptability, and cross-sector collaboration—whether with governments, tech companies, or community groups—will be key to success. As Richard Crenian emphasizes, staying flexible, informed, and strategic will position investors to thrive in the evolving real estate market.

Media, News

Tech Leaders Are Turning to Real Estate Investments

This is a dynamic world of technology entrepreneurship, it’s becoming increasingly common for top executives to diversify their investments beyond the tech sector. A notable trend has emerged: tech leaders, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, are turning their attention to real estate. This shift prompts an intriguing question—what insights do these industry giants have about real estate that influence their investment decisions?

The growing interest in real estate among tech entrepreneurs reflects a strategic effort to achieve long-term growth and financial stability. Unlike the volatile, high-risk nature of tech ventures, real estate offers more tangible, steady returns. Sam Altman’s family office, for example, has invested approximately $85 million in prime properties across San Francisco, Napa, and potentially Hawaii. This raises curiosity about the exclusive knowledge or foresight guiding such decisions.

The entry of tech leaders into real estate could drive significant changes in the sector. Their involvement may inspire innovative development and management practices, incorporating advanced technologies and sustainable solutions. Additionally, this trend might impact property values and market dynamics in specific regions.

Family offices play a crucial role in managing these investments. They handle the financial affairs of high-net-worth individuals, offering services like investment management, financial planning, tax strategies, and estate planning. In real estate, family offices oversee everything from property acquisitions and sales to development projects and risk mitigation. Their comprehensive approach ensures that real estate portfolios, whether residential or commercial, are strategically managed to maximize returns and minimize risks.

This growing fascination with real estate among tech leaders highlights a broader shift in investment strategies, blending the innovative mindset of the tech industry with the enduring value of real estate assets.